Football · Poland Ekstraklasa · 20/09, 14:45

Prediction: Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock

Team pages: Zaglebie Lubin · Wisla Plock

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.58Total

Zaglebie Lubin1.38

Wisla Plock1.19

1X2

40% 28% 31%

Zaglebie Lubin Draw Wisla Plock

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Zaglebie Lubin 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLWLWDDDWW

Wisla Plock 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLDWDLLLDW

Head-to-head

Zaglebie Lubin 3–3 Wisla Plock (6 last)

Zaglebie Lubin2-0Wisla Plock
Wisla Plock2-1Zaglebie Lubin
Zaglebie Lubin0-2Wisla Plock
Wisla Plock2-0Zaglebie Lubin
Zaglebie Lubin2-1Wisla Plock
Zaglebie Lubin3-1Wisla Plock

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zaglebie Lubin 1513 · Wisla Plock 1494

	Zaglebie Lubin	Draw	Wisla Plock
Our model	40%	29%	31%
Market	41%	28%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zaglebie Lubin	Wisla Plock
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1	0.9 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.4	2.1 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.30

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.75

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.44 ★
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.47
2	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 2.89

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.5% Pinnacle margin 4.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:19 +6’	2.25	3.30	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:11 +21’	2.24	3.35	3.12
21:05 +23’	2.52▲	3.38▲	2.76▼
01:39 +1’	2.49▼	3.38	2.80▲
12:25 +75’	2.46▼	3.39▲	2.83▲
21:42 +58’	2.43▼	3.39	2.87▲
14:45 +19’	2.51▲	3.42▲	2.75▼
00:27 +54’	2.45▼	3.43▲	2.82▲
14:47 +55’	2.44▼	3.47▲	2.89▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Zaglebie Lubin 3–0–3 Wisla Plock

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/03/26 Poland Ekstraklasa	Zaglebie Lubin	2-0 HT 1-0	Wisla Plock
25/08/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Wisla Plock	2-1 HT 0-1	Zaglebie Lubin
29/06/25 Europe Friendlies	Zaglebie Lubin	0-2 HT 0-2	Wisla Plock
08/04/23 Poland Ekstraklasa	Wisla Plock	2-0 HT 0-0	Zaglebie Lubin
18/09/22 Poland Ekstraklasa	Zaglebie Lubin	2-1 HT 1-1	Wisla Plock
18/02/22 Poland Ekstraklasa	Zaglebie Lubin	3-1 HT 1-1	Wisla Plock

Standings · Poland Ekstraklasa

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gornik Zabrze	8	7	0	1	16	8	21
2	Wisla Krakow	9	5	2	2	17	12	17
3	Legia Warsaw	8	4	4	0	16	7	16
4	Lech Poznan	7	5	1	1	12	6	16
5	Zaglebie Lubin	8	4	3	1	11	8	15
6	Korona Kielce	9	4	3	2	12	10	15
7	Piast Gliwice	8	4	1	3	15	13	13
8	Pogon Szczecin	7	3	3	1	10	5	12
9	Jagiellonia Bialystok	7	4	0	3	11	10	12
10	GKS Katowice	7	3	0	4	13	11	9
11	Widzew Lodz	9	1	6	2	13	13	9
12	Cracovia Krakow	8	2	2	4	7	11	8
13	Wisla Plock	7	2	2	3	7	12	8
14	Radomiak Radom	8	2	2	4	6	15	8
15	Slask Wroclaw	9	1	3	5	11	15	6
16	Wieczysta Krakow	8	1	2	5	11	17	5
17	Motor Lublin	8	1	2	5	9	15	5
18	Rakow Czestochowa	9	1	0	8	12	21	3

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zaglebie Lubin	Wisla Plock
Rakow Czestochowa	3-2 W	2-1 W
GKS Katowice	2-1 W	0-5 L
Pogon Szczecin	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Zaglebie Lubin (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zaglebie Lubin

LLWLWDDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/09	Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	3-2	2	9	W
12/09	GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
07/09	Wieczysta Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
29/08	Pogon Szczecin Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-0	2	8	D
23/08	Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
15/08	Slask Wroclaw Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	2-1	8	4	W
02/08	Legia Warsaw Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	1-3	2	0	L
27/07	Piast Gliwice Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
23/05	Jagiellonia Bialystok Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	0-1	1	4	L
15/05	Pogon Szczecin Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-1	3	4	L

Wisla Plock

LLDWDLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
07/09	Pogon Szczecin Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
28/08	Korona Kielce Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	0-2	10	1	L
23/08	GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa	0-2	0-5	11	2	L
07/08	Wisla Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	1-2	1-2	10	3	L
31/07	Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
26/07	Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
23/05	Lech Poznan Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	2-2	6	3	D
16/05	Gornik Zabrze Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
10/05	Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa	0-2	0-4	7	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Zaglebie Lubin win (40%). Probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 40%, draw 28%, Wisla Plock 31%.

How many goals are expected in Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock?

The model expects 2.58 goals (Zaglebie Lubin 1.38 · Wisla Plock 1.19), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.