Football · Poland Ekstraklasa · 20/09, 20:15
Prediction: Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom
Team pages: Lech Poznan · Radomiak Radom
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.58Total
Lech Poznan2.6
Radomiak Radom0.98
1X2
Lech Poznan
Draw
Radomiak Radom
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
2-0 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Lech Poznan
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Radomiak Radom
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lech Poznan
4–2–0
Radomiak Radom
(6 last)
- Radomiak Radom1-3Lech Poznan
- Lech Poznan4-1Radomiak Radom
- Radomiak Radom2-2Lech Poznan
- Lech Poznan2-1Radomiak Radom
- Radomiak Radom2-2Lech Poznan
- Lech Poznan2-0Radomiak Radom
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lech Poznan 1579 · Radomiak Radom 1443
| Lech Poznan | Draw | Radomiak Radom | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 71% | 17% | 11% |
| Market | 71% | 17% | 11% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.58 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lech Poznan (rating 1579 vs 1443).
- H2H favours Lech Poznan: 4-2-0.
- High corners: 13 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lech Poznan | Radomiak Radom | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1 | 0.9 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.3 | 0.3 / 1.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/50/0% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.9 / 7.2 | 2.5 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0 | 5.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lech Poznan 4–2–0 Radomiak Radom
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 Poland Ekstraklasa | Radomiak Radom | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Lech Poznan |
| 23/11/25 Poland Ekstraklasa | Lech Poznan | 4-1 HT 1-0 | Radomiak Radom |
| 27/04/25 Poland Ekstraklasa | Radomiak Radom | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Lech Poznan |
| 26/10/24 Poland Ekstraklasa | Lech Poznan | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Radomiak Radom |
| 16/12/23 Poland Ekstraklasa | Radomiak Radom | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Lech Poznan |
| 30/07/23 Poland Ekstraklasa | Lech Poznan | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Radomiak Radom |
Standings · Poland Ekstraklasa
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 8 | 21 |
| 2 | Wisla Krakow | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 12 | 17 |
| 3 | Legia Warsaw | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 16 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | Lech Poznan | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 16 |
| 5 | Zaglebie Lubin | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 15 |
| 6 | Korona Kielce | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 15 |
| 7 | Piast Gliwice | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 13 |
| 8 | Pogon Szczecin | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 12 |
| 9 | Jagiellonia Bialystok | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 12 |
| 10 | GKS Katowice | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 11 | 9 |
| 11 | Widzew Lodz | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 9 |
| 12 | Cracovia Krakow | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 8 |
| 13 | Wisla Plock | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 8 |
| 14 | Radomiak Radom | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 8 |
| 15 | Slask Wroclaw | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 6 |
| 16 | Wieczysta Krakow | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 17 | 5 |
| 17 | Motor Lublin | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 5 |
| 18 | Rakow Czestochowa | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 21 | 3 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lech Poznan | Radomiak Radom |
|---|---|---|
| Gornik Zabrze | 1-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Widzew Lodz | 3-2 W | 0-0 D |
| Piast Gliwice | 3-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Wieczysta Krakow | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Cracovia Krakow | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Lech Poznan (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lech Poznan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Gornik Zabrze Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 06/09 | Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 03/09 | Jagiellonia Bialystok Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa |
2-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 09/08 | Piast Gliwice Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Wieczysta Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa |
2-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 25/07 | Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Wisla Plock Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 16/05 | Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 08/05 | Arka Gdynia Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 1-1 | 15 | 5 | D |
Radomiak Radom
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Piast Gliwice Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-1 | 0-2 | 14 | 3 | L |
| 05/09 | Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 29/08 | Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 23/08 | Zaglebie Lubin Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 14/08 | Legia Warsaw Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-4 | 0-5 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Gornik Zabrze Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 02/08 | GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 9 | L |
| 24/07 | Wieczysta Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 23/05 | Gornik Zabrze Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-5 | 2-6 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Lech Poznan Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Lech Poznan win (71%). Probabilities: Lech Poznan 71%, draw 17%, Radomiak Radom 11%.
How many goals are expected in Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom?
The model expects 3.58 goals (Lech Poznan 2.6 · Radomiak Radom 0.98), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.