Football · Argentina Nacional B · 30/08, 20:30
Prediction: Patronato Parana vs Almagro
Team pages: Patronato Parana · Almagro
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.97Total
Patronato Parana1.37
Almagro0.6
1X2
Patronato Parana
Draw
Almagro
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 60%
Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
1-0 18%
Recent form · 10 last
Patronato Parana
1-6-3 (W-D-L)
Almagro
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Patronato Parana
2–1–2
Almagro
(5 last)
- Almagro0-1Patronato Parana
- Patronato Parana0-0Almagro
- Almagro2-1Patronato Parana
- Almagro2-1Patronato Parana
- Patronato Parana1-0Almagro
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Patronato Parana 1486 · Almagro 1495
| Patronato Parana | Draw | Almagro | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 30% | 15% |
| Market | 55% | 29% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.97 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Patronato Parana | Almagro | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.5 | 1 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.3 | 0.3 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 56/33/11% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 4.9 | 1.8 / 3.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.3 | 4.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Patronato Parana 2–1–2 Almagro
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Argentina Nacional B | Almagro | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Patronato Parana |
| 28/09/25 Argentina Nacional B | Patronato Parana | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Almagro |
| 25/05/25 Argentina Nacional B | Almagro | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Patronato Parana |
| 07/10/23 Argentina Nacional B | Almagro | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Patronato Parana |
| 28/05/23 Argentina Nacional B | Patronato Parana | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Almagro |
Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tristan Suarez | 24 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 25 | 12 | 45 |
| 2 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 39 | 32 | 45 |
| 3 | Club Atletico Temperley | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 29 | 22 | 43 |
| 4 | CA Atlanta | 26 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 31 | 27 | 42 |
| 5 | Ferrocarril Midland | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 27 | 19 | 38 |
| 6 | Deportivo Maipu | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 34 | 27 | 38 |
| 7 | Gimnasia y Tiro | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 27 | 25 | 38 |
| 8 | Atletico Rafaela | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 18 | 19 | 36 |
| 9 | San Martin SJ | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 27 | 24 | 35 |
| 10 | San Martin de Tucuman | 26 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 26 | 23 | 35 |
| 11 | Quilmes | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 27 | 22 | 32 |
| 12 | CA Colegiales | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 25 | 31 |
| 13 | Almagro | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 21 | 29 | 31 |
| 14 | Nueva Chicago | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 20 | 25 | 29 |
| 15 | Agropecuario | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 22 | 30 | 29 |
| 16 | Patronato Parana | 26 | 5 | 13 | 8 | 23 | 29 | 28 |
| 17 | Chacarita Juniors | 26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 28 | 27 |
| 18 | CA Guemes | 25 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 20 | 40 | 22 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Patronato Parana | Almagro |
|---|---|---|
| CA Atlanta | 2-0 W | 3-1 W |
| CA Colegiales | 2-2 D | 0-0 D |
| Quilmes | 3-3 D | 1-1 D |
| Ferrocarril Midland | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Gimnasia y Tiro | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| San Martin de Tucuman | 0-1 L | 0-3 L |
| Atletico Rafaela | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 4 D 2 L | 2 W 3 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Patronato Parana
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 22/08 | Gimnasia Jujuy Argentina Nacional B |
1-1 | 3-3 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 15/08 | Colon Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 09/08 | CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 01/08 | Quilmes Argentina Nacional B |
3-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 26/07 | Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 12/07 | Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 05/07 | San Martin de Tucuman Argentina Nacional B |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 21/06 | Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 9 | D |
| 14/06 | Atletico Rafaela Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 6 | D |
Almagro
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 15/08 | Deportivo Moron Argentina Nacional B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 09/08 | Quilmes Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 4 | D |
| 05/08 | Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 01/08 | Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 28/07 | CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B |
3-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 12/07 | San Martin de Tucuman Argentina Nacional B |
0-3 | 0-3 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 04/07 | Atletico Rafaela Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 20/06 | CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 13/06 | Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Patronato Parana vs Almagro?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Patronato Parana win (55%). Probabilities: Patronato Parana 55%, draw 30%, Almagro 15%.
How many goals are expected in Patronato Parana vs Almagro?
The model expects 1.97 goals (Patronato Parana 1.37 · Almagro 0.6), with a 52% chance of over 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Patronato Parana vs Almagro?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.