Football · Venezuela Segunda Division · 17/09, 01:00

Prediction: CD Lara vs Atletico El Vigia

Team pages: CD Lara · Atletico El Vigia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

CD Lara2.1

Atletico El Vigia0.62

1X2

72% 18% 10%

CD Lara Draw Atletico El Vigia

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Lara 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LWLDWWWWWW

Atletico El Vigia 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

LDWWDWWWWW

Head-to-head

CD Lara 1–1–1 Atletico El Vigia (3 last)

Atletico El Vigia2-1CD Lara
CD Lara1-0Atletico El Vigia
Atletico El Vigia2-2CD Lara

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Lara 1569 · Atletico El Vigia 1567

	CD Lara	Draw	Atletico El Vigia
Our model	71%	20%	9%
Market	73%	16%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Lara	Atletico El Vigia
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.9	1.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.6	2.7 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.8	3.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.22

X5.75

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.95

2 (+2)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 23:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.22▼	Bet365 1.22
X	4.33 → 5.75▲	Bet365 5.75
2	6.50 → 8.00▲	Bet365 8.00

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:20 +2’	1.36	4.33	6.50
14:12 +11’	1.48▲	4.00▼	5.25▼
16:53 +3’	1.44▼	4.10▲	5.50▲
20:34 +5’	1.57▲	3.80▼	4.75▼
23:07 +4’	1.22▼	5.75▲	8.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Lara 1–1–1 Atletico El Vigia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/07/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Atletico El Vigia	2-1 HT 1-0	CD Lara
25/04/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	CD Lara	1-0 HT 0-0	Atletico El Vigia
01/03/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Atletico El Vigia	2-2 HT 0-1	CD Lara

Standings · Venezuela Segunda Division · Segunda Division 2026, Central-West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Lara	25	16	6	3	42	20	54
2	Barquisimeto	25	12	8	5	43	27	44
3	Urena SC	25	11	9	5	38	26	42
4	Yaracuyanos	25	10	7	8	31	26	37
5	Zamora II	24	9	7	8	37	33	34
6	Academia Puerto Cabello II	25	8	6	11	31	33	30
7	Atletico El Vigia	25	8	6	11	28	40	30
8	Atletico Barinas	25	8	3	14	44	54	27
9	Real Frontera	25	3	2	20	20	55	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Lara	Atletico El Vigia
Atletico Barinas	1-0 W	2-1 W
Urena SC	1-0 W	1-0 W
Barquisimeto	2-1 W	5-2 W
Zamora II	2-0 W	2-0 W
Academia Puerto Cabello II	3-0 W	0-0 D
Real Frontera	2-0 W	3-1 W
Yaracuyanos	2-2 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 0 L	6 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico El Vigia (2 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Lara

LWLDWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	1	6	W
06/09	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-0	5	11	W
03/09	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
29/08	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-0	3	6	W
22/08	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	3-0	5	7	W
15/08	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	2-0	5	7	W
02/08	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-2	7	10	D
29/07	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	1-2	0	4	L
25/07	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	4-1	8	5	W
06/06	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	2-3	10	6	L

Atletico El Vigia

LDWWDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
02/09	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	2-1	13	4	W
30/08	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
23/08	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	2-1	5-2	3	2	W
15/08	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-0	4	7	W
09/08	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
02/08	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	3-1	7	8	W
29/07	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
25/07	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
31/05	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-2	1-7	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Lara vs Atletico El Vigia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Lara win (72%). Probabilities: CD Lara 72%, draw 18%, Atletico El Vigia 10%.

How many goals are expected in CD Lara vs Atletico El Vigia?

The model expects 2.72 goals (CD Lara 2.1 · Atletico El Vigia 0.62), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Lara vs Atletico El Vigia?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.