Football · Venezuela Segunda Division · 25/09, 21:30

Prediction: Academia Puerto Cabello II vs Atletico El Vigia

Team pages: Academia Puerto Cabello II · Atletico El Vigia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

Academia Puerto Cabello II1.7

Atletico El Vigia1.22

1X2

48% 26% 27%

Academia Puerto Cabello II Draw Atletico El Vigia

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Academia Puerto Cabello II 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWDDLWLDLL

Atletico El Vigia 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWWWLW

Head-to-head

Academia Puerto Cabello II 2–2–2 Atletico El Vigia (6 last)

Atletico El Vigia0-0Academia Puerto Cabello II
Academia Puerto Cabello II1-0Atletico El Vigia
Atletico El Vigia1-4Academia Puerto Cabello II
Academia Puerto Cabello II1-2Atletico El Vigia
Atletico El Vigia5-1Academia Puerto Cabello II
Academia Puerto Cabello II0-0Atletico El Vigia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Academia Puerto Cabello II 1477 · Atletico El Vigia 1559

	Academia Puerto Cabello II	Draw	Atletico El Vigia
Our model	47%	26%	26%
Market	48%	26%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico El Vigia (rating 1477 vs 1559).
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Academia Puerto Cabello II	Atletico El Vigia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.7	1.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3.2	3.2 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.4	4.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.50

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 15:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.90▲	Bet365 1.90
X	3.60 → 3.50▼	Bet365 3.50
2	3.90 → 3.40▼	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
11:57 +13’	1.73	3.60	3.90
11:08 +5’	1.67▼	3.60	4.20▲
12:30 +1’	1.83▲	3.50▼	3.60▼
14:43 +22’	1.90▲	3.50	3.40▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Academia Puerto Cabello II 2–2–2 Atletico El Vigia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/08/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Atletico El Vigia	0-0 HT 0-0	Academia Puerto Cabello II
10/05/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Academia Puerto Cabello II	1-0 HT 1-0	Atletico El Vigia
15/03/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Atletico El Vigia	1-4 HT 1-1	Academia Puerto Cabello II
03/09/25 Venezuela Segunda Division	Academia Puerto Cabello II	1-2 HT 0-0	Atletico El Vigia
20/07/25 Venezuela Segunda Division	Atletico El Vigia	5-1 HT 4-0	Academia Puerto Cabello II
18/05/25 Venezuela Segunda Division	Academia Puerto Cabello II	0-0 HT 0-0	Atletico El Vigia

Standings · Venezuela Segunda Division · Segunda Division 2026, Central-West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Lara	27	18	6	3	46	20	60
2	Barquisimeto	26	13	8	5	45	27	47
3	Urena SC	27	12	9	6	41	31	45
4	Zamora II	26	10	7	9	40	35	37
5	Yaracuyanos	26	10	7	9	31	27	37
6	Atletico El Vigia	27	9	6	12	31	44	33
7	Atletico Barinas	27	9	4	14	48	57	31
8	Academia Puerto Cabello II	27	8	6	13	35	39	30
9	Real Frontera	27	3	3	21	22	59	12

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Academia Puerto Cabello II	Atletico El Vigia
Atletico Barinas	2-3 L	2-1 W
Urena SC	2-3 L	1-0 W
Barquisimeto	1-1 D	5-2 W
Zamora II	0-3 L	2-0 W
Real Frontera	3-0 W	3-1 W
CD Lara	0-3 L	0-3 L
Yaracuyanos	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 4 L	6 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico El Vigia (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Academia Puerto Cabello II

LWDDLWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	2-3	1	7	L
17/09	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	2-1	2-3	5	9	L
12/09	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-1	2	8	D
06/09	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-3	6	2	L
30/08	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	3-0	5	6	W
22/08	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-3	2	7	L
14/08	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
09/08	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
02/08	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	3-2	5-3	3	6	W
29/07	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	5	3	L

Atletico El Vigia

WWDWWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	3-1	4	5	W
17/09	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
13/09	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
02/09	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	2-1	13	4	W
30/08	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
23/08	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	2-1	5-2	3	2	W
15/08	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-0	4	7	W
09/08	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
02/08	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	3-1	7	8	W
29/07	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-1	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Academia Puerto Cabello II vs Atletico El Vigia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Academia Puerto Cabello II win (48%). Probabilities: Academia Puerto Cabello II 48%, draw 26%, Atletico El Vigia 27%.

How many goals are expected in Academia Puerto Cabello II vs Atletico El Vigia?

The model expects 2.92 goals (Academia Puerto Cabello II 1.7 · Atletico El Vigia 1.22), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Academia Puerto Cabello II vs Atletico El Vigia?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.