Football · Venezuela Segunda Division · 17/09, 21:30

Prediction: Academia Puerto Cabello II vs Urena SC

Team pages: Academia Puerto Cabello II · Urena SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.56Total

Academia Puerto Cabello II1.36

Urena SC1.19

1X2

40% 29% 32%

Academia Puerto Cabello II Draw Urena SC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Academia Puerto Cabello II 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDLWDDLWLD

Urena SC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWWDDDLLLW

Head-to-head

Academia Puerto Cabello II 0–1–5 Urena SC (6 last)

Urena SC1-0Academia Puerto Cabello II
Academia Puerto Cabello II0-3Urena SC
Urena SC1-1Academia Puerto Cabello II
Urena SC2-1Academia Puerto Cabello II
Academia Puerto Cabello II0-1Urena SC
Urena SC2-0Academia Puerto Cabello II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Academia Puerto Cabello II 1467 · Urena SC 1500

	Academia Puerto Cabello II	Draw	Urena SC
Our model	39%	29%	32%
Market	40%	28%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.56 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Urena SC: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 11.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Academia Puerto Cabello II	Urena SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.5	1.7 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/80/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.4	2.3 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.3	5.9 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.20

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.25▼	Bet365 2.25
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.60 → 2.80▲	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
22:58 +17’	2.40	3.20	2.60
04:28 +5’	2.25▼	3.20	2.80▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Academia Puerto Cabello II 0–1–5 Urena SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/07/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Urena SC	1-0 HT 0-0	Academia Puerto Cabello II
26/04/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Academia Puerto Cabello II	0-3 HT 0-0	Urena SC
01/03/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Urena SC	1-1 HT 0-0	Academia Puerto Cabello II
07/09/25 Venezuela Segunda Division	Urena SC	2-1 HT 1-1	Academia Puerto Cabello II
24/07/25 Venezuela Segunda Division	Academia Puerto Cabello II	0-1 HT 0-0	Urena SC
01/06/25 Venezuela Segunda Division	Urena SC	2-0 HT 1-0	Academia Puerto Cabello II

Standings · Venezuela Segunda Division · Segunda Division 2026, Central-West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Lara	26	17	6	3	45	20	57
2	Barquisimeto	26	13	8	5	45	27	47
3	Urena SC	25	11	9	5	38	26	42
4	Yaracuyanos	25	10	7	8	31	26	37
5	Zamora II	25	9	7	9	37	35	34
6	Academia Puerto Cabello II	25	8	6	11	31	33	30
7	Atletico El Vigia	26	8	6	12	28	43	30
8	Atletico Barinas	25	8	3	14	44	54	27
9	Real Frontera	25	3	2	20	20	55	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Academia Puerto Cabello II	Urena SC
Barquisimeto	1-1 D	1-1 D
Zamora II	0-3 L	2-2 D
Real Frontera	3-0 W	1-0 W
CD Lara	0-3 L	0-1 L
Yaracuyanos	0-0 D	3-4 L
Atletico El Vigia	0-0 D	0-1 L
Atletico Barinas	5-3 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Academia Puerto Cabello II (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Academia Puerto Cabello II

LDLWDDLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-1	2	8	D
06/09	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-3	6	2	L
30/08	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	3-0	5	6	W
22/08	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-3	2	7	L
14/08	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
09/08	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
02/08	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	3-2	5-3	3	6	W
29/07	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
25/07	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	2-2	5	9	D
05/06	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-2	3	8	L

Urena SC

WWWDDDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
06/09	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-1	10	11	L
02/09	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	2-2	3-4	5	6	L
30/08	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
23/08	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
09/08	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-1	8	8	D
03/08	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-2	2-2	2	9	D
29/07	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
25/07	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	3-0	5-1	4	6	W
06/06	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	3-2	2	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Academia Puerto Cabello II vs Urena SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Academia Puerto Cabello II win (40%). Probabilities: Academia Puerto Cabello II 40%, draw 29%, Urena SC 32%.

How many goals are expected in Academia Puerto Cabello II vs Urena SC?

The model expects 2.56 goals (Academia Puerto Cabello II 1.36 · Urena SC 1.19), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Academia Puerto Cabello II vs Urena SC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.