Football · Malta Challenge League · 18/09, 20:45

Prediction: Swieqi Utd vs Pieta Hotspurs

Team pages: Swieqi Utd · Pieta Hotspurs

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.25Total

Swieqi Utd1.91

Pieta Hotspurs1.34

1X2

50% 25% 26%

Swieqi Utd Draw Pieta Hotspurs

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Swieqi Utd 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

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Pieta Hotspurs 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Swieqi Utd 3–3 Pieta Hotspurs (6 last)

Swieqi Utd0-1Pieta Hotspurs
Pieta Hotspurs1-3Swieqi Utd
Swieqi Utd3-1Pieta Hotspurs
Pieta Hotspurs1-0Swieqi Utd
Swieqi Utd1-0Pieta Hotspurs
Swieqi Utd1-2Pieta Hotspurs

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Swieqi Utd 1579 · Pieta Hotspurs 1536

	Swieqi Utd	Draw	Pieta Hotspurs
Our model	50%	24%	26%
Market	50%	25%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.25 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Swieqi Utd (rating 1579 vs 1536).
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Swieqi Utd	Pieta Hotspurs
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1	2.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6.1	2.6 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.3	3.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.60

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
09:32 +3’	1.80	3.60	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Swieqi Utd 3–0–3 Pieta Hotspurs

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/03/26 Malta Challenge League Cup	Swieqi Utd	0-1 HT 0-0	Pieta Hotspurs
22/02/26 Malta Challenge League	Pieta Hotspurs	1-3 HT 0-2	Swieqi Utd
21/12/25 Malta Challenge League	Swieqi Utd	3-1 HT 1-0	Pieta Hotspurs
05/04/25 Malta Challenge League	Pieta Hotspurs	1-0 HT 0-0	Swieqi Utd
04/01/25 Malta Challenge League	Swieqi Utd	1-0 HT 1-0	Pieta Hotspurs
16/09/23 Malta Challenge League	Swieqi Utd	1-2 HT 1-0	Pieta Hotspurs

Standings · Malta Challenge League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Swieqi Utd	2	1	1	0	6	5	4
2	Fgura United	1	1	0	0	4	0	3
3	Melita FC Saint Julian	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
3	Victoria Hotspurs	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
5	Tarxien Rainbows FC	1	1	0	0	3	1	3
6	Sirens	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
7	Pieta Hotspurs	2	1	0	1	5	5	3
8	Santa Lucia FC	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
9	Attard	1	0	1	0	3	3	1
10	Vittoriosa Stars	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
11	St Andrews	2	0	1	1	1	4	1
12	Naxxar Lions	1	0	0	1	2	3	0
13	Zurrieq FC	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
14	Mgarr United	1	0	0	1	1	3	0
15	Gudja United	1	0	0	1	0	3	0
16	Zebbug Rangers FC	1	0	0	1	0	4	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Swieqi Utd	Pieta Hotspurs
Birzebbuga	1-1 D	2-2 D
Fgura United	1-1 D	4-0 W
St Andrews	1-0 W	2-2 D
Melita FC Saint Julian	5-0 W	1-0 W
Balzan FC	2-1 W	1-3 L
Sirens	2-0 W	4-3 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 0 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Swieqi Utd (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Swieqi Utd

WWWDWWWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Attard Malta Challenge League	2-1	3-3	14	0	D
23/04	Birzebbuga Malta Challenge League	1-1	1-1	5	9	D
19/04	Fgura United Malta Challenge League	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
11/04	St Andrews Malta Challenge League	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
04/04	Melita FC Saint Julian Malta Challenge League	2-0	5-0	6	3	W
14/03	Balzan FC Malta Challenge League	1-0	2-1	4	8	W
08/03	Birzebbuga Malta Challenge League	1-2	2-2	10	4	D
01/03	Sirens Malta Challenge League	0-0	2-0	6	5	W
22/02	Pieta Hotspurs Malta Challenge League	2-0	3-1	7	10	W
15/02	Fgura United Malta Challenge League	0-1	2-1	1	8	W

Pieta Hotspurs

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Naxxar Lions Malta Challenge League	1-2	3-2	7	4	W
19/04	St Andrews Malta Challenge League	0-1	2-2	1	3	D
12/04	Sirens Malta Challenge League	1-2	4-3	3	0	W
04/04	Fgura United Malta Challenge League	0-0	4-0	7	1	W
14/03	Birzebbuga Malta Challenge League	0-1	2-2	3	7	D
08/03	Melita FC Saint Julian Malta Challenge League	0-0	1-0	1	5	W
28/02	Balzan FC Malta Challenge League	0-1	1-3	7	4	L
22/02	Swieqi Utd Malta Challenge League	0-2	1-3	3	10	L
14/02	Zurrieq FC Malta Challenge League	3-0	3-1	5	1	W
08/02	Mtarfa Malta Challenge League	3-0	6-0	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Swieqi Utd vs Pieta Hotspurs?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Swieqi Utd win (50%). Probabilities: Swieqi Utd 50%, draw 25%, Pieta Hotspurs 26%.

How many goals are expected in Swieqi Utd vs Pieta Hotspurs?

The model expects 3.25 goals (Swieqi Utd 1.91 · Pieta Hotspurs 1.34), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Swieqi Utd vs Pieta Hotspurs?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.