Football · Malta Challenge League · 19/09, 18:00

Prediction: Melita FC Saint Julian vs Mgarr United

Team pages: Melita FC Saint Julian

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

Melita FC Saint Julian1.75

Mgarr United1.28

1X2

47% 25% 27%

Melita FC Saint Julian Draw Mgarr United

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Melita FC Saint Julian 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WWWLLWLLLW

Mgarr United 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Melita FC Saint Julian 2–1–0 Mgarr United (3 last)

Mgarr United2-2Melita FC Saint Julian
Mgarr United1-3Melita FC Saint Julian
Melita FC Saint Julian3-1Mgarr United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Melita FC Saint Julian 1508 · Mgarr United 1465

	Melita FC Saint Julian	Draw	Mgarr United
Our model	47%	26%	27%
Market	48%	25%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Melita FC Saint Julian (rating 1508 vs 1465).
H2H favours Melita FC Saint Julian: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Melita FC Saint Julian	Mgarr United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.1	1.6 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.4	3 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	2.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.60

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:39 +18’	1.90	3.60	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Melita FC Saint Julian 2–1–0 Mgarr United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/03/26 Malta Challenge League Cup	Mgarr United	2-2 HT 1-1	Melita FC Saint Julian
10/12/25 Malta Challenge League	Mgarr United	1-3 HT 1-2	Melita FC Saint Julian
24/10/15 Malta FA Trophy	Melita FC Saint Julian	3-1	Mgarr United

Standings · Malta Challenge League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Swieqi Utd	2	1	1	0	6	5	4
2	Fgura United	1	1	0	0	4	0	3
3	Melita FC Saint Julian	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
3	Victoria Hotspurs	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
5	Tarxien Rainbows FC	1	1	0	0	3	1	3
6	Sirens	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
7	Pieta Hotspurs	2	1	0	1	5	5	3
8	Santa Lucia FC	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
9	Attard	1	0	1	0	3	3	1
10	Vittoriosa Stars	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
11	St Andrews	2	0	1	1	1	4	1
12	Naxxar Lions	1	0	0	1	2	3	0
13	Zurrieq FC	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
14	Mgarr United	1	0	0	1	1	3	0
15	Gudja United	1	0	0	1	0	3	0
16	Zebbug Rangers FC	1	0	0	1	0	4	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Melita FC Saint Julian	Mgarr United
Gudja United	3-0 W	0-2 L
Fgura United	0-1 L	2-4 L
Vittoriosa Stars	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Melita FC Saint Julian (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Melita FC Saint Julian

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Gudja United Malta Challenge League	0-0	3-0	5	4	W
19/04	Balzan FC Malta Challenge League	0-1	0-2	6	6	L
11/04	Fgura United Malta Challenge League	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
04/04	Swieqi Utd Malta Challenge League	0-2	0-5	3	3	L
14/03	St Andrews Malta Challenge League	2-0	3-0	1	4	W
08/03	Pieta Hotspurs Malta Challenge League	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
28/02	Birzebbuga Malta Challenge League	1-0	1-2	5	4	L
22/02	Sirens Malta Challenge League	1-0	2-0	2	10	W
14/02	Vittoriosa Stars Malta Challenge League	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
08/02	Balzan FC Malta Challenge League	1-0	2-0	4	3	W

Mgarr United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Tarxien Rainbows FC Malta Challenge League	0-2	1-3	10	2	L
18/04	Zurrieq FC Malta Challenge League	1-1	2-4	5	4	L
12/04	Gudja United Malta Challenge League	0-1	0-2	7	3	L
06/04	Santa Lucia FC Malta Challenge League	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
15/03	Vittoriosa Stars Malta Challenge League	1-0	1-1	1	3	D
08/03	Zebbug Rangers FC Malta Challenge League	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
28/02	Marsa FC Malta Challenge League	0-1	2-1	1	0	W
21/02	Mtarfa Malta Challenge League	3-0	5-0	7	2	W
14/02	Gudja United Malta Challenge League	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
07/02	Fgura United Malta Challenge League	0-1	2-4	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Melita FC Saint Julian vs Mgarr United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Melita FC Saint Julian win (47%). Probabilities: Melita FC Saint Julian 47%, draw 25%, Mgarr United 27%.

How many goals are expected in Melita FC Saint Julian vs Mgarr United?

The model expects 3.03 goals (Melita FC Saint Julian 1.75 · Mgarr United 1.28), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Melita FC Saint Julian vs Mgarr United?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.