Football · Malta Challenge League · 01/11, 14:00

Prediction: Swieqi Utd vs Santa Lucia FC

Team pages: Swieqi Utd · Santa Lucia FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Swieqi Utd1.77

Santa Lucia FC1.06

1X2

53% 25% 22%

Swieqi Utd Draw Santa Lucia FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Swieqi Utd 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWWDDDWLWW

Santa Lucia FC 2-7-1 (W-D-L)

DLDWWDDDDD

Head-to-head

Swieqi Utd 2–2–1 Santa Lucia FC (5 last)

Santa Lucia FC1-3Swieqi Utd
Swieqi Utd2-2Santa Lucia FC
Swieqi Utd3-2Santa Lucia FC
Santa Lucia FC3-1Swieqi Utd
Swieqi Utd2-2Santa Lucia FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Swieqi Utd 1570 · Santa Lucia FC 1504

	Swieqi Utd	Draw	Santa Lucia FC
Our model	53%	26%	21%
Market	54%	24%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Swieqi Utd (rating 1570 vs 1504).
H2H favours Swieqi Utd: 2-2-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Swieqi Utd	Santa Lucia FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.2	1.3 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.9	1.6 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.80

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
04:49 +13’	1.67	3.80	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Swieqi Utd 2–2–1 Santa Lucia FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/11/25 Malta Challenge League	Santa Lucia FC	1-3 HT 0-2	Swieqi Utd
13/04/25 Malta Challenge League	Swieqi Utd	2-2 HT 0-1	Santa Lucia FC
21/09/24 Malta Challenge League	Swieqi Utd	3-2 HT 0-1	Santa Lucia FC
14/04/19 Malta Division 1	Santa Lucia FC	3-1 HT 1-1	Swieqi Utd
15/12/18 Malta Division 1	Swieqi Utd	2-2 HT 1-0	Santa Lucia FC

Standings · Malta Challenge League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tarxien Rainbows FC	6	6	0	0	15	6	18
2	Pieta Hotspurs	6	4	0	2	13	8	12
3	Fgura United	5	3	2	0	10	2	11
4	Naxxar Lions	5	3	1	1	10	7	10
5	Swieqi Utd	5	3	1	1	11	9	10
6	Mgarr United	5	3	0	2	7	5	9
7	Melita FC Saint Julian	5	2	1	2	6	5	7
8	Zurrieq FC	6	2	1	3	4	7	7
9	St Andrews	6	2	1	3	3	9	7
10	Attard	6	1	3	2	9	9	6
11	Victoria Hotspurs	6	2	0	4	7	9	6
12	Vittoriosa Stars	6	1	3	2	5	7	6
13	Santa Lucia FC	5	0	5	0	3	3	5
14	Sirens	5	1	1	3	7	9	4
15	Zebbug Rangers FC	6	1	1	4	5	12	4
16	Gudja United	5	0	0	5	1	9	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Swieqi Utd	Santa Lucia FC
Fgura United	1-1 D	0-0 D
St Andrews	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Swieqi Utd (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Swieqi Utd

WWWDDDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Victoria Hotspurs Malta Challenge League	0-0	2-1	4	9	W
18/10	Sirens Malta Challenge League	2-2	3-2	9	5	W
10/10	Zebbug Rangers FC Malta Challenge League	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
18/09	Pieta Hotspurs Malta Challenge League	1-1	3-2	3	4	W
12/09	Attard Malta Challenge League	2-1	3-3	14	0	D
23/04	Birzebbuga Malta Challenge League	1-1	1-1	5	9	D
19/04	Fgura United Malta Challenge League	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
11/04	St Andrews Malta Challenge League	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
04/04	Melita FC Saint Julian Malta Challenge League	2-0	5-0	6	3	W
14/03	Balzan FC Malta Challenge League	1-0	2-1	4	8	W

Santa Lucia FC

DLDWWDDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Naxxar Lions Malta Challenge League	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
17/10	Fgura United Malta Challenge League	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
11/10	Zurrieq FC Malta Challenge League	0-1	1-1	8	4	D
18/09	St Andrews Malta Challenge League	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
12/09	Vittoriosa Stars Malta Challenge League	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
19/04	Mtarfa Malta Challenge League	4-0	5-1	13	3	W
12/04	Zurrieq FC Malta Challenge League	2-0	3-0	4	2	W
06/04	Mgarr United Malta Challenge League	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
14/03	Marsa FC Malta Challenge League	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
08/03	Vittoriosa Stars Malta Challenge League	0-0	1-1	2	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Swieqi Utd vs Santa Lucia FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Swieqi Utd win (53%). Probabilities: Swieqi Utd 53%, draw 25%, Santa Lucia FC 22%.

How many goals are expected in Swieqi Utd vs Santa Lucia FC?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Swieqi Utd 1.77 · Santa Lucia FC 1.06), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Swieqi Utd vs Santa Lucia FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.