Football · Malta Challenge League · 01/11, 16:30

Prediction: Fgura United vs Mgarr United

Team pages: Fgura United · Mgarr United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

Fgura United1.6

Mgarr United1.33

1X2

43% 27% 31%

Fgura United Draw Mgarr United

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Fgura United 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLLWDWDWDW

Mgarr United 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDDLLLWWWL

Head-to-head

Fgura United 2–1–1 Mgarr United (4 last)

Mgarr United2-4Fgura United
Mgarr United0-0Fgura United
Fgura United2-0Mgarr United
Mgarr United1-0Fgura United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fgura United 1541 · Mgarr United 1483

	Fgura United	Draw	Mgarr United
Our model	43%	27%	31%
Market	43%	26%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fgura United (rating 1541 vs 1483).
H2H favours Fgura United: 2-1-1.
High corners: 13.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fgura United	Mgarr United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 7.5	4.6 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.3	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.40

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
05:06 +2’	2.10	3.40	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fgura United 2–1–1 Mgarr United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/02/26 Malta Challenge League	Mgarr United	2-4 HT 0-1	Fgura United
21/12/24 Malta Challenge League	Mgarr United	0-0 HT 0-0	Fgura United
20/02/22 Malta Challenge League	Fgura United	2-0 HT 0-0	Mgarr United
31/10/21 Malta Challenge League	Mgarr United	1-0 HT 0-0	Fgura United

Standings · Malta Challenge League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tarxien Rainbows FC	6	6	0	0	15	6	18
2	Pieta Hotspurs	6	4	0	2	13	8	12
3	Fgura United	5	3	2	0	10	2	11
4	Naxxar Lions	5	3	1	1	10	7	10
5	Swieqi Utd	5	3	1	1	11	9	10
6	Mgarr United	5	3	0	2	7	5	9
7	Melita FC Saint Julian	5	2	1	2	6	5	7
8	Zurrieq FC	6	2	1	3	4	7	7
9	St Andrews	6	2	1	3	3	9	7
10	Attard	6	1	3	2	9	9	6
11	Victoria Hotspurs	6	2	0	4	7	9	6
12	Vittoriosa Stars	6	1	3	2	5	7	6
13	Santa Lucia FC	5	0	5	0	3	3	5
14	Sirens	5	1	1	3	7	9	4
15	Zebbug Rangers FC	6	1	1	4	5	12	4
16	Gudja United	5	0	0	5	1	9	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fgura United	Mgarr United
Gudja United	2-1 W	0-2 L
Santa Lucia FC	0-0 D	1-1 D
Zebbug Rangers FC	4-0 W	2-0 W
Melita FC Saint Julian	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Fgura United (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fgura United

LLLWDWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Gudja United Malta Challenge League	0-1	2-1	11	4	W
17/10	Santa Lucia FC Malta Challenge League	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
10/10	Victoria Hotspurs Malta Challenge League	1-0	3-0	4	8	W
19/09	Sirens Malta Challenge League	0-1	1-1	9	5	D
13/09	Zebbug Rangers FC Malta Challenge League	2-0	4-0	6	6	W
19/04	Swieqi Utd Malta Challenge League	0-1	1-1	9	3	D
11/04	Melita FC Saint Julian Malta Challenge League	1-0	1-0	13	2	W
04/04	Pieta Hotspurs Malta Challenge League	0-0	0-4	2	1	L
15/03	Sirens Malta Challenge League	0-1	2-3	5	1	L
10/03	Balzan FC Malta Challenge League	0-2	1-2	7	4	L

Mgarr United

WDDLLLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Zurrieq FC Malta Challenge League	0-1	0-1	12	5	L
17/10	St Andrews Malta Challenge League	1-0	2-0	9	5	W
10/10	Vittoriosa Stars Malta Challenge League	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
19/09	Melita FC Saint Julian Malta Challenge League	2-0	2-1	4	4	W
13/09	Tarxien Rainbows FC Malta Challenge League	0-2	1-3	10	2	L
18/04	Zurrieq FC Malta Challenge League	1-1	2-4	5	4	L
12/04	Gudja United Malta Challenge League	0-1	0-2	7	3	L
06/04	Santa Lucia FC Malta Challenge League	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
15/03	Vittoriosa Stars Malta Challenge League	1-0	1-1	1	3	D
08/03	Zebbug Rangers FC Malta Challenge League	0-0	2-0	8	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fgura United vs Mgarr United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fgura United win (43%). Probabilities: Fgura United 43%, draw 27%, Mgarr United 31%.

How many goals are expected in Fgura United vs Mgarr United?

The model expects 2.93 goals (Fgura United 1.6 · Mgarr United 1.33), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Fgura United vs Mgarr United?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.