Football · Argentina Championship Women · 31/08, 15:00
Prediction: CA Independiente Women vs Union Santa Fe (W)
Team pages: CA Independiente Women · Union Santa Fe (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.72Total
CA Independiente Women1.47
Union Santa Fe (W)1.26
1X2
CA Independiente Women
Draw
Union Santa Fe (W)
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
CA Independiente Women
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Union Santa Fe (W)
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CA Independiente Women
0–1–0
Union Santa Fe (W)
(1 last)
- Union Santa Fe (W)2-2CA Independiente Women
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CA Independiente Women 1414 · Union Santa Fe (W) 1463
| CA Independiente Women | Draw | Union Santa Fe (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Market | 41% | 28% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Santa Fe (W) (rating 1414 vs 1463).
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CA Independiente Women | Union Santa Fe (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 2.4 | 1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0 / 1 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/22/78% | 25/38/38% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 4.8 | 1 / 2.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.1 | 3.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Independiente Women 0–1–0 Union Santa Fe (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 Argentina Championship Women | Union Santa Fe (W) | 2-2 HT 2-1 | CA Independiente Women |
Standings · Argentina Championship Women · Primera Division A, Women 2026, Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Luis FC (W) | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 12 |
| 2 | San Lorenzo (W) | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 11 |
| 4 | Belgrano (W) | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Banfield (W) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Boca Juniors (W) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 10 |
| 8 | River Plate (W) | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 9 |
| 9 | Social Atletico Television (W) | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | Union Santa Fe (W) | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 8 |
| 11 | Huracan (W) | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 7 |
| 12 | Lanus (W) | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| 13 | Racing Club (W) | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| 14 | CA Independiente Women | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 3 |
| 15 | Gimnasia LP (W) | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| 16 | Newell's Old Boys (W) | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | CA Independiente Women | Union Santa Fe (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Huracan (W) | 3-2 W | 1-1 D |
| Belgrano (W) | 0-6 L | 1-1 D |
| River Plate (W) | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| Banfield (W) | 0-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Gimnasia LP (W) | 0-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Newell's Old Boys (W) | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Racing Club (W) | 1-3 L | 1-2 L |
| San Lorenzo (W) | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) | 1-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 7 L | 2 W 3 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Union Santa Fe (W) (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CA Independiente Women
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 17/08 | Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 10/08 | Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 0-6 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 03/08 | River Plate (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 11 | 6 | L |
| 25/07 | Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 17/07 | Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 12/07 | Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 09/07 | Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 04/07 | San Lorenzo (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 9 | L |
| 26/06 | CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
Union Santa Fe (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 16/08 | Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | D |
| 09/08 | River Plate (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 02/08 | Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 27/07 | Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 22/07 | Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 13/07 | Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 08/07 | San Lorenzo (W) Argentina Championship Women |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 04/07 | CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 28/06 | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CA Independiente Women vs Union Santa Fe (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a CA Independiente Women win (41%). Probabilities: CA Independiente Women 41%, draw 28%, Union Santa Fe (W) 31%.
How many goals are expected in CA Independiente Women vs Union Santa Fe (W)?
The model expects 2.72 goals (CA Independiente Women 1.47 · Union Santa Fe (W) 1.26), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in CA Independiente Women vs Union Santa Fe (W)?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.