Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 23/08, 12:00

Prediction: Leevon PPK vs FK Smiltene/BJSS

Team pages: Leevon PPK · FK Smiltene/BJSS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.65Total

Leevon PPK2.8

FK Smiltene/BJSS0.86

1X2

77% 14% 9%

Leevon PPK Draw FK Smiltene/BJSS

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Leevon PPK 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDDWWWWW

FK Smiltene/BJSS 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLWLWL

Head-to-head

Leevon PPK 3–2–0 FK Smiltene/BJSS (5 last)

FK Smiltene/BJSS0-0Leevon PPK
Leevon PPK3-2FK Smiltene/BJSS
FK Smiltene/BJSS0-4Leevon PPK
Leevon PPK2-2FK Smiltene/BJSS
FK Smiltene/BJSS0-2Leevon PPK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leevon PPK 1601 · FK Smiltene/BJSS 1431

	Leevon PPK	Draw	FK Smiltene/BJSS
Our model	77%	15%	8%
Market	78%	13%	9%

Estimated total (ours) 3.65 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leevon PPK (rating 1601 vs 1431).
H2H favours Leevon PPK: 3-2-0.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leevon PPK	FK Smiltene/BJSS
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1	1.1 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.7	2.6 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.6	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.17

X7.00

210.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)1.98

2 (+2.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.98

Under 3.751.82

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.17 → 1.17	Pinn 1.25 ★
X	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00
2	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10% Pinnacle margin 13.3%

Time*	1	X	2
03:58 +16’	1.17	7.00	10.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:14	1.27	5.24	6.38
06:02 +2’	1.25▼	5.37▲	6.67▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Leevon PPK 3–2–0 FK Smiltene/BJSS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Smiltene/BJSS	0-0 HT 0-0	Leevon PPK
30/08/25 Latvia 1. Liga	Leevon PPK	3-2 HT 2-0	FK Smiltene/BJSS
27/04/25 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Smiltene/BJSS	0-4 HT 0-2	Leevon PPK
11/08/24 Latvia 1. Liga	Leevon PPK	2-2 HT 0-2	FK Smiltene/BJSS
13/04/24 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Smiltene/BJSS	0-2 HT 0-1	Leevon PPK

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Valmiera FC	17	14	2	1	48	15	44
2	Metta/LU	16	13	2	1	69	14	41
3	Saldus SS/Leevon	16	11	3	2	27	18	36
4	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	16	10	5	1	34	15	35
5	JDFS Alberts	17	9	4	4	35	24	31
6	Marupes SC	18	8	1	9	29	30	25
7	SK Super Nova II	17	6	5	6	24	25	23
8	Riga FC II	16	6	2	8	23	30	20
9	Skanstes SK	16	6	1	9	30	32	19
10	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	16	3	3	10	21	45	12
11	RFS II	17	3	3	11	23	48	12
12	JFK Ventspils	16	2	5	9	18	28	11
13	FK Smiltene/BJSS	16	2	4	10	19	43	10
14	Rezeknes FA	16	1	2	13	13	46	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leevon PPK	FK Smiltene/BJSS
JFK Ventspils	2-1 W	2-1 W
RFS II	2-1 W	3-5 L
Riga FC II	3-2 W	0-2 L
FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	4-1 W	1-1 D
SK Super Nova II	3-2 W	0-2 L
Marupes SC	0-0 D	1-2 L
Rezeknes FA	2-0 W	1-0 W
Skanstes SK	2-1 W	2-4 L
Record vs common	7 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Leevon PPK (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leevon PPK

WWWDDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/05	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	2-1	5	7	W
16/05	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	2-1	12	7	W
10/05	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	3-2	9	8	W
02/05	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	4-1	5	3	W
26/04	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	2-2	3-2	11	7	W
18/04	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-0	10	6	D
12/04	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-0	5	9	D
28/03	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
22/03	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	2-1	2	5	W
08/11	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-2	5	3	W

FK Smiltene/BJSS

LLDLLLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-3	1-4	2	3	L
02/08	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	2-1	9	4	W
25/07	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	3-5	5	7	L
19/07	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-0	5	10	W
04/07	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-2	2	5	L
28/06	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	2-4	6	1	L
14/06	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
24/05	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
13/05	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
09/05	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-1	2	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leevon PPK vs FK Smiltene/BJSS?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Leevon PPK win (77%). Probabilities: Leevon PPK 77%, draw 14%, FK Smiltene/BJSS 9%.

How many goals are expected in Leevon PPK vs FK Smiltene/BJSS?

The model expects 3.65 goals (Leevon PPK 2.8 · FK Smiltene/BJSS 0.86), with a 54% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Leevon PPK vs FK Smiltene/BJSS?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.