Football · Iceland Premier League · 05/09, 18:30
Prediction: Keflavik vs Valur Reykjavik
Team pages: Keflavik · Valur Reykjavik
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.65Total
Keflavik1.97
Valur Reykjavik1.68
1X2
Keflavik
Draw
Valur Reykjavik
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
1-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Keflavik
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Valur Reykjavik
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Keflavik
1–4–1
Valur Reykjavik
(6 last)
- Valur Reykjavik1-1Keflavik
- Keflavik2-2Valur Reykjavik
- Keflavik1-1Valur Reykjavik
- Valur Reykjavik0-0Keflavik
- Valur Reykjavik0-3Keflavik
- Keflavik0-1Valur Reykjavik
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Keflavik 1514 · Valur Reykjavik 1461
| Keflavik | Draw | Valur Reykjavik | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 23% | 33% |
| Market | 44% | 24% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.65 goals · Bet365 line 3.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Keflavik (rating 1514 vs 1461).
- High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Keflavik | Valur Reykjavik | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.5 | 1.8 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.2 | 3.3 / 6.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.2 | 3.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Keflavik 1–4–1 Valur Reykjavik
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/26 Iceland Premier League | Valur Reykjavik | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Keflavik |
| 09/06/24 Iceland Cup | Keflavik | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Valur Reykjavik |
| 13/08/23 Iceland Premier League | Keflavik | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Valur Reykjavik |
| 21/05/23 Iceland Premier League | Valur Reykjavik | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Keflavik |
| 11/07/22 Iceland Premier League | Valur Reykjavik | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Keflavik |
| 24/04/22 Iceland Premier League | Keflavik | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Valur Reykjavik |
Standings · Iceland Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 21 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 65 | 19 | 52 |
| 2 | KR Reykjavik | 21 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 73 | 46 | 44 |
| 3 | Fram Reykjavik | 21 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 54 | 40 | 44 |
| 4 | Breidablik | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 42 | 39 | 30 |
| 5 | Keflavik | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 32 | 36 | 28 |
| 6 | IA Akranes | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 36 | 40 | 27 |
| 7 | Stjarnan | 21 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 40 | 48 | 27 |
| 8 | Valur Reykjavik | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 37 | 44 | 24 |
| 9 | FH Hafnarfjordur | 21 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 27 | 38 | 21 |
| 10 | Thor Akureyri | 21 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 21 | 50 | 18 |
| 11 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 21 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 30 | 43 | 17 |
| 12 | KA Akureyri | 21 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 33 | 47 | 17 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Keflavik | Valur Reykjavik |
|---|---|---|
| FH Hafnarfjordur | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Thor Akureyri | 2-0 W | 4-2 W |
| Stjarnan | 0-1 L | 2-3 L |
| KA Akureyri | 3-0 W | 4-4 D |
| Vikingur Reykjavik | 1-5 L | 0-2 L |
| IA Akranes | 5-2 W | 2-2 D |
| Breidablik | 1-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Fram Reykjavik | 1-1 D | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 4 L | 2 W 2 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Keflavik (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Keflavik
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 23/08 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 15/08 | Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 09/08 | Stjarnan Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 05/08 | KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
3-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 24/07 | Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-2 | 1-5 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 20/07 | IA Akranes Iceland Premier League |
2-0 | 5-2 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 13/07 | Breidablik Iceland Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 06/07 | Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 28/06 | KR Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
Valur Reykjavik
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | IA Akranes Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 14 | 3 | D |
| 23/08 | Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 17/08 | KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
1-3 | 4-4 | 9 | 0 | D |
| 09/08 | Breidablik Iceland Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 03/08 | Stjarnan Iceland Premier League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 18/07 | Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
1-3 | 2-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 12/07 | FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 04/07 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 28/06 | Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
2-0 | 4-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 21/06 | Keflavik Iceland Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 12 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Keflavik vs Valur Reykjavik?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Keflavik win (44%). Probabilities: Keflavik 44%, draw 24%, Valur Reykjavik 32%.
How many goals are expected in Keflavik vs Valur Reykjavik?
The model expects 3.65 goals (Keflavik 1.97 · Valur Reykjavik 1.68), with a 54% chance of under 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Keflavik vs Valur Reykjavik?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.