Football · Uganda Premier League · 15/09, 15:00
Prediction: NEC FC Bugolobi vs URA
Team pages: NEC FC Bugolobi · URA
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Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.89Total
NEC FC Bugolobi1.2
URA0.68
1X2
NEC FC Bugolobi
Draw
URA
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 58%
Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
1-0 17%
Recent form · 10 last
NEC FC Bugolobi
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
URA
2-6-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
NEC FC Bugolobi
2–3–1
URA
(6 last)
- NEC FC Bugolobi1-0URA
- URA1-1NEC FC Bugolobi
- URA0-0NEC FC Bugolobi
- NEC FC Bugolobi1-0URA
- URA1-1NEC FC Bugolobi
- URA2-0NEC FC Bugolobi
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · NEC FC Bugolobi 1576 · URA 1482
| NEC FC Bugolobi | Draw | URA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 33% | 20% |
| Market | 49% | 30% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.89 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NEC FC Bugolobi (rating 1576 vs 1482).
- H2H favours NEC FC Bugolobi: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| NEC FC Bugolobi | URA | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 0.7 | 1.1 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.8 / 4.8 | 3.3 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.1 | 3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · NEC FC Bugolobi 2–3–1 URA
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/04/26 Uganda Premier League | NEC FC Bugolobi | 1-0 HT 0-0 | URA |
| 02/10/25 Uganda Premier League | URA | 1-1 HT 0-1 | NEC FC Bugolobi |
| 13/09/25 Uganda Super 8 | URA | 0-0 HT 0-0 | NEC FC Bugolobi |
| 24/05/25 Uganda Premier League | NEC FC Bugolobi | 1-0 HT 0-0 | URA |
| 05/12/24 Uganda Premier League | URA | 1-1 HT 1-0 | NEC FC Bugolobi |
| 16/04/24 Uganda Premier League | URA | 2-0 HT 1-0 | NEC FC Bugolobi |
Standings · Uganda Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUL FC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Blacks Power | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | NEC FC Bugolobi | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | SC Villa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Lugazi FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Entebbe UPPC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Uganda Police FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | URA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Express FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 10 | Maroons | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| 11 | UPDF FC | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 12 | Kigezi Homeboyz FC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 13 | KCCA | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| 14 | Kitara FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 15 | Mbarara City | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 16 | Kataka FC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 17 | Vipers SC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 | Ntugasaze FC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | NEC FC Bugolobi | URA |
|---|---|---|
| KCCA | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| FC Calvary | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| SC Villa | 1-4 L | 0-1 L |
| BUL FC | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Maroons | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 3 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
NEC FC Bugolobi
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | Mbarara City Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 01/09 | Lugazi FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | KCCA Uganda Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | FC Calvary Uganda Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 20/05 | SC Villa Uganda Premier League |
0-3 | 1-4 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 09/05 | Kitara FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 28/04 | BUL FC Uganda Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 24/04 | Mbarara City Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 21/04 | Express FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 18/04 | Maroons Uganda Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
URA
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | SC Villa Uganda Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 6 | L |
| 30/08 | Maroons Uganda Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | Buhimba United Saints FC Uganda Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 19/05 | KCCA Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 12/05 | FC Calvary Uganda Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 08/05 | Vipers SC Uganda Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 28/04 | Maroons Uganda Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 24/04 | UPDF FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 21/04 | Uganda Police FC Uganda Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 16/04 | BUL FC Uganda Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in NEC FC Bugolobi vs URA?
According to our model, the most likely result is a NEC FC Bugolobi win (48%). Probabilities: NEC FC Bugolobi 48%, draw 31%, URA 21%.
How many goals are expected in NEC FC Bugolobi vs URA?
The model expects 1.89 goals (NEC FC Bugolobi 1.2 · URA 0.68), with a 54% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in NEC FC Bugolobi vs URA?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.