Football · Uganda Premier League · 17/09, 15:00
Prediction: UPDF FC vs Maroons
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.28Total
UPDF FC1.3
Maroons0.98
1X2
UPDF FC
Draw
Maroons
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
UPDF FC
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Maroons
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
UPDF FC
2–2–2
Maroons
(6 last)
- Maroons0-0UPDF FC
- UPDF FC1-2Maroons
- UPDF FC2-1Maroons
- Maroons1-1UPDF FC
- UPDF FC2-1Maroons
- Maroons4-2UPDF FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · UPDF FC 1452 · Maroons 1491
| UPDF FC | Draw | Maroons | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 31% | 27% |
| Market | 43% | 30% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.28 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| UPDF FC | Maroons | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.2 | 1.3 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3.1 | 1.3 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.1 | 3.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · UPDF FC 2–2–2 Maroons
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 Uganda Premier League | Maroons | 0-0 HT 0-0 | UPDF FC |
| 15/10/25 Uganda Premier League | UPDF FC | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Maroons |
| 16/04/25 Uganda Premier League | UPDF FC | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Maroons |
| 15/09/24 Uganda Premier League | Maroons | 1-1 HT 0-0 | UPDF FC |
| 14/05/24 Uganda Premier League | UPDF FC | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Maroons |
| 05/01/24 Uganda Premier League | Maroons | 4-2 HT 2-1 | UPDF FC |
Standings · Uganda Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUL FC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Blacks Power | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | NEC FC Bugolobi | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | SC Villa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Lugazi FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Entebbe UPPC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Uganda Police FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | URA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Express FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 10 | Maroons | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| 11 | UPDF FC | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 12 | Kigezi Homeboyz FC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 13 | KCCA | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| 14 | Kitara FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 15 | Mbarara City | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 16 | Kataka FC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 17 | Vipers SC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 | Ntugasaze FC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | UPDF FC | Maroons |
|---|---|---|
| Uganda Police FC | 0-0 D | 3-1 W |
| Entebbe UPPC | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| KCCA | 1-2 L | 0-3 L |
| URA | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
UPDF FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09 | Uganda Police FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 01/09 | Entebbe UPPC Uganda Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | Kataka FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 23/05 | SC Villa Uganda Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 19/05 | FC Calvary Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 13/05 | KCCA Uganda Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 07/05 | Entebbe UPPC Uganda Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 29/04 | Uganda Police FC Uganda Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 24/04 | URA Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 21/04 | BUL FC Uganda Premier League |
4-1 | 5-2 | 0 | 0 | W |
Maroons
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | Blacks Power Uganda Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 02/09 | Ntugasaze FC Uganda Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | URA Uganda Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Lugazi FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 19/05 | Vipers SC Uganda Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 12/05 | Entebbe UPPC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 07/05 | KCCA Uganda Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 28/04 | URA Uganda Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 25/04 | Uganda Police FC Uganda Premier League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 21/04 | Mbarara City Uganda Premier League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in UPDF FC vs Maroons?
According to our model, the most likely result is a UPDF FC win (43%). Probabilities: UPDF FC 43%, draw 30%, Maroons 27%.
How many goals are expected in UPDF FC vs Maroons?
The model expects 2.28 goals (UPDF FC 1.3 · Maroons 0.98), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in UPDF FC vs Maroons?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.