Football · Uganda Premier League · 16/09, 15:00
Prediction: Lugazi FC vs Uganda Police FC
Team pages: Lugazi FC · Uganda Police FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.96Total
Lugazi FC0.92
Uganda Police FC1.04
1X2
Lugazi FC
Draw
Uganda Police FC
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 60%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
0-0 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Lugazi FC
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Uganda Police FC
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lugazi FC
2–3–1
Uganda Police FC
(6 last)
- Uganda Police FC1-2Lugazi FC
- Uganda Police FC2-1Lugazi FC
- Lugazi FC1-1Uganda Police FC
- Lugazi FC1-0Uganda Police FC
- Uganda Police FC0-0Lugazi FC
- Uganda Police FC1-1Lugazi FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lugazi FC 1478 · Uganda Police FC 1472
| Lugazi FC | Draw | Uganda Police FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 34% | 36% |
| Market | 31% | 31% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.96 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Lugazi FC: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lugazi FC | Uganda Police FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 0.9 | 0.9 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.2 | 0.4 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 3.9 | 2 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.2 | 3.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lugazi FC 2–3–1 Uganda Police FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/02/26 Uganda Cup | Uganda Police FC | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Lugazi FC |
| 12/02/26 Uganda Premier League | Uganda Police FC | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Lugazi FC |
| 10/12/25 Uganda Premier League | Lugazi FC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Uganda Police FC |
| 12/02/25 Uganda Premier League | Lugazi FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Uganda Police FC |
| 20/11/24 Uganda Premier League | Uganda Police FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Lugazi FC |
| 24/02/24 Uganda Division 2 | Uganda Police FC | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Lugazi FC |
Standings · Uganda Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUL FC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Blacks Power | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | NEC FC Bugolobi | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | SC Villa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Lugazi FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Entebbe UPPC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Uganda Police FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | URA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Express FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 10 | Maroons | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| 11 | UPDF FC | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 12 | Kigezi Homeboyz FC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 13 | KCCA | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| 14 | Kitara FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 15 | Mbarara City | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 16 | Kataka FC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 17 | Vipers SC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 | Ntugasaze FC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lugazi FC | Uganda Police FC |
|---|---|---|
| Entebbe UPPC | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Maroons | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| Mbarara City | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Kitara FC | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 3 L | 1 W 2 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lugazi FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09 | Entebbe UPPC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 01/09 | NEC FC Bugolobi Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 29/08 | Kigezi Homeboyz FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Maroons Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 19/05 | Express FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 12/05 | BUL FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 06/05 | Mbarara City Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 29/04 | Buhimba United Saints FC Uganda Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Kitara FC Uganda Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 22/04 | SC Villa Uganda Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
Uganda Police FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09 | UPDF FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 02/09 | Blacks Power Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 29/08 | Mbarara City Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | Kitara FC Uganda Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 19/05 | Entebbe UPPC Uganda Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 12/05 | Vipers SC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 06/05 | FC Calvary Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 29/04 | UPDF FC Uganda Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Maroons Uganda Premier League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 21/04 | URA Uganda Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lugazi FC vs Uganda Police FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Uganda Police FC win (37%). Probabilities: Lugazi FC 31%, draw 32%, Uganda Police FC 37%.
How many goals are expected in Lugazi FC vs Uganda Police FC?
The model expects 1.96 goals (Lugazi FC 0.92 · Uganda Police FC 1.04), with a 54% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Lugazi FC vs Uganda Police FC?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.