Football · England Championship · 28/08, 21:00
Prediction: Wrexham vs Birmingham
Team pages: Wrexham · Birmingham
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.18Total
Wrexham1.14
Birmingham1.04
1X2
Wrexham
Draw
Birmingham
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Wrexham
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Birmingham
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Wrexham
0–2–2
Birmingham
(4 last)
- Birmingham2-0Wrexham
- Wrexham1-1Birmingham
- Wrexham1-1Birmingham
- Birmingham3-1Wrexham
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Wrexham 1500 · Birmingham 1589
| Wrexham | Draw | Birmingham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 32% | 32% |
| Market | 38% | 29% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.18 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Birmingham (rating 1500 vs 1589).
- H2H favours Birmingham: 2-2-0.
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Wrexham | Birmingham | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.7 | 1.1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 5.3 | 3.1 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0 | 3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Wrexham 0–2–2 Birmingham
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 England Championship | Birmingham | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Wrexham |
| 03/10/25 England Championship | Wrexham | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Birmingham |
| 23/01/25 England League 1 | Wrexham | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Birmingham |
| 16/09/24 England League 1 | Birmingham | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Wrexham |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Millwall | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Charlton | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | QPR | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Blackburn | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 6 | Watford | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Bolton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Swansea | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | West Brom | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Portsmouth | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 11 | Middlesbrough | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 12 | Cardiff | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 13 | Birmingham | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 13 | Wrexham | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 15 | Sheff Utd | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 16 | Burnley | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 | Derby | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| 17 | West Ham | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| 19 | Bristol City | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 20 | Lincoln City | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| 20 | Preston | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| 20 | Stoke | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| 23 | Norwich | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 24 | Southampton | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Wrexham
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Watford England Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 2 | D |
| 17/08 | Cardiff England Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 02/05 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
2-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 26/04 | Coventry England Championship |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 21/04 | Oxford Utd England Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Stoke England Championship |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 12/04 | Birmingham England Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 07/04 | Southampton England Championship |
1-2 | 1-5 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 03/04 | West Brom England Championship |
0-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 21/03 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
Birmingham
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Bristol City England Championship |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 15/08 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | D |
| 02/05 | Portsmouth England Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 25/04 | Bristol City England Championship |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 22/04 | Preston England Championship |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Hull England Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 12/04 | Wrexham England Championship |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 06/04 | Ipswich England Championship |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 03/04 | Blackburn England Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 21/03 | Derby England Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Wrexham vs Birmingham?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Wrexham win (37%). Probabilities: Wrexham 37%, draw 30%, Birmingham 33%.
How many goals are expected in Wrexham vs Birmingham?
The model expects 2.18 goals (Wrexham 1.14 · Birmingham 1.04), with a 58% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Wrexham vs Birmingham?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.