Football · Malawi Super League · 23/08, 14:30

Prediction: Karonga United vs Chitipa United

Team pages: Karonga United · Chitipa United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.18Total

Karonga United1.29

Chitipa United0.89

1X2

45% 31% 25%

Karonga United Draw Chitipa United

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Karonga United 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLWLDLLWLL

Chitipa United 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLWDWWLW

Head-to-head

Karonga United 1–4–1 Chitipa United (6 last)

Karonga United1-0Chitipa United
Chitipa United0-0Karonga United
Chitipa United0-0Karonga United
Karonga United1-1Chitipa United
Chitipa United3-3Karonga United
Karonga United0-1Chitipa United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Karonga United 1459 · Chitipa United 1501

	Karonga United	Draw	Chitipa United
Our model	44%	31%	24%
Market	45%	30%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.18 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chitipa United (rating 1459 vs 1501).
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Karonga United	Chitipa United
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.8	0.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	10/80/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.6	1.8 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0	2.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.00

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.93

Under 21.88

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
19:49 +6’	2.00	3.00	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Karonga United 1–4–1 Chitipa United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/12/25 Malawi Super League	Karonga United	1-0 HT 0-0	Chitipa United
13/07/25 Malawi Super League	Chitipa United	0-0 HT 0-0	Karonga United
13/06/21 Malawi Super League	Chitipa United	0-0 HT 0-0	Karonga United
28/11/20 Malawi Super League	Karonga United	1-1 HT 0-0	Chitipa United
12/10/19 Malawi Super League	Chitipa United	3-3 HT 2-1	Karonga United
14/05/19 Malawi Super League	Karonga United	0-1 HT 0-0	Chitipa United

Standings · Malawi Super League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Silver Strikers	13	8	4	1	23	5	28
2	Big Bullets	13	7	5	1	15	7	26
3	Mighty Wanderers	13	7	5	1	24	8	26
4	Blue Eagles	12	7	1	4	19	14	22
5	Masters FC	13	6	3	4	16	14	21
6	Red Lions	13	5	4	4	11	11	19
7	Chitipa United	13	6	1	6	10	15	19
8	Mitundu Baptist FC	13	5	3	5	12	13	18
9	Ekhaya FC	13	4	5	4	13	11	17
10	Moyale Barracks	13	4	5	4	12	14	17
11	Civil Service Utd	13	4	2	7	8	14	14
12	MAFCO	12	3	4	5	11	13	13
13	Dedza Dynamos	13	3	4	6	9	19	13
14	Karonga United	13	3	3	7	13	22	12
15	Kamuzu Barracks	13	3	2	8	13	19	11
16	Creck SC	13	1	3	9	8	18	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Karonga United	Chitipa United
Big Bullets	0-1 L	0-2 L
Mitundu Baptist FC	1-2 L	1-0 W
Silver Strikers	1-4 L	0-0 D
Dedza Dynamos	1-3 L	2-1 W
Red Lions	1-0 W	0-1 L
Mighty Wanderers	1-4 L	0-4 L
Civil Service Utd	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 5 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Karonga United

WLWLDLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Big Bullets Malawi Super League	0-1	0-1	1	2	L
09/08	Mitundu Baptist FC Malawi Super League	0-0	1-2	5	2	L
26/07	Creck SC Malawi Super League	2-1	2-1	1	1	W
19/07	Silver Strikers Malawi Super League	0-0	1-4	2	1	L
04/07	Dedza Dynamos Malawi Super League	1-2	1-3	8	4	L
28/06	Moyale Barracks Malawi Super League	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
21/06	Blue Eagles Malawi Super League	2-2	2-3	3	4	L
31/05	Red Lions Malawi Super League	0-0	1-0	5	0	W
27/05	Mighty Wanderers Malawi Super League	1-3	1-4	1	2	L
24/05	Civil Service Utd Malawi Super League	1-0	1-0	4	3	W

Chitipa United

WLLLWDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Mitundu Baptist FC Malawi Super League	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
09/08	Big Bullets Malawi Super League	0-0	0-2	0	3	L
25/07	Ekhaya FC Malawi Super League	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
19/07	Dedza Dynamos Malawi Super League	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
05/07	Silver Strikers Malawi Super League	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
27/06	Kamuzu Barracks Malawi Super League	0-0	2-1	3	4	W
21/06	Red Lions Malawi Super League	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
31/05	Mighty Wanderers Malawi Super League	0-3	0-4	3	5	L
24/05	MAFCO Malawi Super League	0-0	0-2	2	1	L
16/05	Civil Service Utd Malawi Super League	0-0	1-0	2	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Karonga United vs Chitipa United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Karonga United win (45%). Probabilities: Karonga United 45%, draw 31%, Chitipa United 25%.

How many goals are expected in Karonga United vs Chitipa United?

The model expects 2.18 goals (Karonga United 1.29 · Chitipa United 0.89), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Karonga United vs Chitipa United?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.