Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · 23/08, 16:00

Prediction: FC Alpendorada vs AD Camacha

Team pages: AD Camacha

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

FC Alpendorada1.36

AD Camacha1.09

1X2

42% 29% 29%

FC Alpendorada Draw AD Camacha

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Alpendorada 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DDWLWWLWLW

AD Camacha 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDDWLWLWLD

Head-to-head

FC Alpendorada 3–1–0 AD Camacha (4 last)

FC Alpendorada3-1AD Camacha
AD Camacha0-0FC Alpendorada
AD Camacha0-1FC Alpendorada
FC Alpendorada3-2AD Camacha

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Alpendorada 1526 · AD Camacha 1495

	FC Alpendorada	Draw	AD Camacha
Our model	42%	30%	29%
Market	42%	29%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Alpendorada: 3-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Alpendorada	AD Camacha
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1	1.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.7	2.9 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.10

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
20:41 +8’	2.15	3.10	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Alpendorada 3–1–0 AD Camacha

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
16/02/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	FC Alpendorada	3-1 HT 0-0	AD Camacha
06/10/24 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	AD Camacha	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Alpendorada
26/02/23 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	AD Camacha	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Alpendorada
13/11/22 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	FC Alpendorada	3-2 HT 2-1	AD Camacha

Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Campeonato de Portugal 26/27, Group B

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AD Ovarense	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
2	Cinfaes	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
3	FC Alpendorada	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
4	AD Castro Daire	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
5	AD Camacha	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
5	AD Sanjoanense	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
5	Uniao de Lamas	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
5	Florgrade FC	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
5	Salgueiros	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
5	Beira Mar	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
11	AD Machico	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
11	Estrela da Calheta FC	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
13	Guarda Desportiva	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
14	UD Sousense	2	0	0	2	0	3	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Alpendorada

DDWLWWLWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Guarda Desportiva Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
18/04	GD Resende Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-2	3-4	5	0	L
12/04	Salgueiros Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	1	4	W
04/04	Beira Mar Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
22/03	Anadia Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	3-0	2	6	W
15/03	CD Gouveia Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
08/03	Uniao de Lamas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-1	9	5	L
01/03	Vila Mea Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	3-2	5	5	W
22/02	Cinfaes Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	11	4	D
15/02	Florgrade FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	2-2	4	6	D

AD Camacha

DDDWLWLWLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Salgueiros Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-1	7	5	D
18/04	CD Celoricense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	1-2	2	6	L
12/04	Vilaverdense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-0	3-0	6	0	W
29/03	Braganca Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-2	1-3	5	3	L
22/03	AD Machico Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	2-1	2	5	W
15/03	Brito SC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-2	2-4	6	7	L
08/03	Sao Martinho Portugal Campeonato Nacional	3-0	3-0	6	2	W
01/03	SC Vianense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
21/02	FC Tirsense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
15/02	Chaves B Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	8	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Alpendorada vs AD Camacha?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Alpendorada win (42%). Probabilities: FC Alpendorada 42%, draw 29%, AD Camacha 29%.

How many goals are expected in FC Alpendorada vs AD Camacha?

The model expects 2.44 goals (FC Alpendorada 1.36 · AD Camacha 1.09), with a 57% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Alpendorada vs AD Camacha?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.