Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · 23/08, 18:00

Prediction: Benfica e Castelo Branco vs Naval 1893

Team pages: Benfica e Castelo Branco · Naval 1893

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.19Total

Benfica e Castelo Branco1.24

Naval 18930.95

1X2

42% 30% 28%

Benfica e Castelo Branco Draw Naval 1893

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Benfica e Castelo Branco 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWDDWLLW

Naval 1893 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DLLWWWWDWL

Head-to-head

Benfica e Castelo Branco 4–1 Naval 1893 (5 last)

Naval 18931-0Benfica e Castelo Branco
Benfica e Castelo Branco1-0Naval 1893
Naval 18933-7Benfica e Castelo Branco
Benfica e Castelo Branco8-0Naval 1893
Benfica e Castelo Branco5-0Naval 1893

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Benfica e Castelo Branco 1524 · Naval 1893 1531

	Benfica e Castelo Branco	Draw	Naval 1893
Our model	42%	31%	27%
Market	43%	29%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Benfica e Castelo Branco: 4-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Benfica e Castelo Branco	Naval 1893
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	1.1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.7	2.9 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.10

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:34 +7’	2.10	3.10	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Benfica e Castelo Branco 4–0–1 Naval 1893

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/01/26 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Naval 1893	1-0 HT 1-0	Benfica e Castelo Branco
17/08/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Benfica e Castelo Branco	1-0 HT 0-0	Naval 1893
21/12/16 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Naval 1893	3-7 HT 2-3	Benfica e Castelo Branco
04/09/16 Portugal Cup	Benfica e Castelo Branco	8-0 HT 4-0	Naval 1893
21/08/16 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Benfica e Castelo Branco	5-0	Naval 1893

Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Campeonato de Portugal 26/27, Group C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Mortagua FC	1	1	0	0	3	1	3
2	Benfica e Castelo Branco	1	1	0	0	3	2	3
3	UD da Serra	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
4	CF Os Marialvas	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
5	AD Nogueirense	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
5	Fatima	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
5	O Elvas	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
5	Sertanense	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
9	Fazendense	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Alverca B	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Oliveira Hospital	1	0	0	1	2	3	0
12	Naval 1893	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
13	AT Malveira	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
14	GD Os Nazarenos	1	0	0	1	1	3	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Benfica e Castelo Branco	Naval 1893
Oliveira Hospital	3-2 W	0-0 D
Fatima	1-4 L	1-0 W
Samora Correia	1-2 L	2-1 W
GD Peniche	2-0 W	0-2 L
GD Vitoria de Sernache	0-0 D	2-0 W
AC Marinhense	1-0 W	1-2 L
UD da Serra	0-2 L	1-2 L
Juventude Desportiva Lajense	3-2 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Naval 1893 (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Benfica e Castelo Branco

WLWWDDWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Oliveira Hospital Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	3-2	6	7	W
18/04	Fatima Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	1-4	3	8	L
12/04	Samora Correia Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-2	9	4	L
04/04	GD Peniche Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
25/03	GD Vitoria de Sernache Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
21/03	Oliveira Hospital Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
15/03	AC Marinhense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
08/03	Lusitania Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	8	3	W
01/03	UD da Serra Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
21/02	Juventude Desportiva Lajense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-0	3-2	1	6	W

Naval 1893

DLLWWWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	UD da Serra Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-2	1-2	7	6	L
18/04	GD Vitoria de Sernache Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
12/04	CF Os Marialvas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
04/04	Juventude Desportiva Lajense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
22/03	Mortagua FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	2-0	6	0	W
15/03	Fatima Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-0	2	8	W
08/03	Samora Correia Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	2-1	7	7	W
04/03	AC Marinhense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
28/02	GD Peniche Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-2	6	1	L
22/02	Oliveira Hospital Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	6	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Benfica e Castelo Branco vs Naval 1893?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Benfica e Castelo Branco win (42%). Probabilities: Benfica e Castelo Branco 42%, draw 30%, Naval 1893 28%.

How many goals are expected in Benfica e Castelo Branco vs Naval 1893?

The model expects 2.19 goals (Benfica e Castelo Branco 1.24 · Naval 1893 0.95), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Benfica e Castelo Branco vs Naval 1893?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.