Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · 23/08, 18:00

Prediction: Beira Mar vs AD Machico

Team pages: Beira Mar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.3Total

Beira Mar1.46

AD Machico0.83

1X2

51% 28% 20%

Beira Mar Draw AD Machico

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Beira Mar 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLLDLDWWWD

AD Machico 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DLWWWLWDWD

Head-to-head

Beira Mar 0–3–1 AD Machico (4 last)

Beira Mar1-1AD Machico
AD Machico3-1Beira Mar
AD Machico1-1Beira Mar
Beira Mar3-3AD Machico

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Beira Mar 1528 · AD Machico 1530

	Beira Mar	Draw	AD Machico
Our model	51%	29%	20%
Market	51%	28%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.3 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Beira Mar	AD Machico
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.1	1.2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.6	1.7 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	5.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.20

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.02

2 (+0.75)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
20:41 +8’	1.75	3.20	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Beira Mar 0–3–1 AD Machico

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Beira Mar	1-1 HT 1-1	AD Machico
15/12/24 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	AD Machico	3-1 HT 0-1	Beira Mar
16/04/23 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	AD Machico	1-1 HT 0-1	Beira Mar
08/01/23 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Beira Mar	3-3 HT 1-0	AD Machico

Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Campeonato de Portugal 26/27, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AD Ovarense	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
2	Cinfaes	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
3	FC Alpendorada	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
4	AD Castro Daire	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
5	AD Camacha	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
5	AD Sanjoanense	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
5	Uniao de Lamas	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
5	Florgrade FC	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
5	Salgueiros	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
5	Beira Mar	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
11	AD Machico	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
11	Estrela da Calheta FC	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
13	Guarda Desportiva	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
14	UD Sousense	2	0	0	2	0	3	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Beira Mar

WLLDLDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	AD Sanjoanense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
18/04	CD Gouveia Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	2-1	5	3	W
12/04	Uniao de Lamas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	4-0	8	6	W
04/04	FC Alpendorada Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
22/03	Cinfaes Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
15/03	Florgrade FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
08/03	Leca Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
01/03	SC Vila Real Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-2	7	3	L
22/02	Rebordosa Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-3	6	5	L
15/02	Aparecida FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	3-1	5-1	4	5	W

AD Machico

DLWWWLWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Estrela da Calheta FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
18/04	CD Ribeira Brava Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
12/04	CD Celoricense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
08/04	Vilaverdense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	7	0	W
22/03	AD Camacha Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-2	8	5	L
15/03	Braganca Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	1	11	W
08/03	Brito SC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	2	11	W
01/03	Sao Martinho Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-0	2-1	2	6	W
22/02	SC Vianense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-2	2-3	4	7	L
15/02	FC Tirsense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	2-2	5	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Beira Mar vs AD Machico?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Beira Mar win (51%). Probabilities: Beira Mar 51%, draw 28%, AD Machico 20%.

How many goals are expected in Beira Mar vs AD Machico?

The model expects 2.3 goals (Beira Mar 1.46 · AD Machico 0.83), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Beira Mar vs AD Machico?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.