Football · Colombia Liga Femenina · 26/08, 01:00
Prediction: Independiente Santa Fe (W) vs Orsomarso (W)
Team pages: Independiente Santa Fe (W) · Orsomarso (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.04Total
Independiente Santa Fe (W)1.31
Orsomarso (W)0.73
1X2
Independiente Santa Fe (W)
Draw
Orsomarso (W)
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 67%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
1-0 16%
Recent form · 10 last
Independiente Santa Fe (W)
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Orsomarso (W)
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Independiente Santa Fe (W)
3–1–1
Orsomarso (W)
(5 last)
- Orsomarso (W)1-0Independiente Santa Fe (W)
- Orsomarso (W)0-0Independiente Santa Fe (W)
- Independiente Santa Fe (W)1-0Orsomarso (W)
- Independiente Santa Fe (W)1-0Orsomarso (W)
- Orsomarso (W)0-1Independiente Santa Fe (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Independiente Santa Fe (W) 1523 · Orsomarso (W) 1525
| Independiente Santa Fe (W) | Draw | Orsomarso (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 31% | 19% |
| Market | 51% | 28% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.04 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Independiente Santa Fe (W): 3-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Independiente Santa Fe (W) | Orsomarso (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.9 | 1.4 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3.8 | 1.9 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.3 | 4.2 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Santa Fe (W) 3–1–1 Orsomarso (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 Colombia Liga Femenina | Orsomarso (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Independiente Santa Fe (W) |
| 06/09/25 Colombia Liga Femenina | Orsomarso (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Independiente Santa Fe (W) |
| 01/09/25 Colombia Liga Femenina | Independiente Santa Fe (W) | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Orsomarso (W) |
| 14/04/25 Colombia Liga Femenina | Independiente Santa Fe (W) | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Orsomarso (W) |
| 09/05/22 Colombia Liga Femenina | Orsomarso (W) | 0-1 | Independiente Santa Fe (W) |
Standings · Colombia Liga Femenina · Liga Femenina 2026, Main Round, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Deportivo Cali (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Independiente Santa Fe (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Orsomarso (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Independiente Santa Fe (W) | Orsomarso (W) |
|---|---|---|
| CD Real Santander (W) | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Internacional FC de Palmira (W) | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Independiente Medellin (W) | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Junior (W) | 1-1 D | 5-1 W |
| Deportivo Pasto (W) | 0-0 D | 3-0 W |
| Internacional de Bogota (W) | 3-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 1 L | 3 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Independiente Santa Fe (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08 | Fortaleza CEIF (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
2-1 | 4-4 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 05/08 | Millonarios (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 7 | L |
| 26/07 | CD Real Santander (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 28/05 | Llaneros (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
2-1 | 4-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Internacional FC de Palmira (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | Independiente Medellin (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 11/05 | Junior (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 03/05 | Millonarios (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 26/04 | Deportivo Pasto (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 20/04 | Internacional de Bogota (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 8 | W |
Orsomarso (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08 | Deportivo Pasto (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 01/08 | CD Real Santander (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 25/07 | Internacional FC de Palmira (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 29/05 | Junior (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
2-0 | 5-1 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Independiente Medellin (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 17/05 | Internacional de Bogota (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 10 | L |
| 11/05 | Once Caldas (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 03/05 | Internacional FC de Palmira (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 26/04 | Atletico Nacional (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 12/04 | Atletico Bucaramanga (W) Colombia Liga Femenina |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Independiente Santa Fe (W) vs Orsomarso (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente Santa Fe (W) win (50%). Probabilities: Independiente Santa Fe (W) 50%, draw 29%, Orsomarso (W) 20%.
How many goals are expected in Independiente Santa Fe (W) vs Orsomarso (W)?
The model expects 2.04 goals (Independiente Santa Fe (W) 1.31 · Orsomarso (W) 0.73), with a 56% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Independiente Santa Fe (W) vs Orsomarso (W)?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.