Football · Malawi Super League · 22/08, 14:30
Prediction: Moyale Barracks vs Kamuzu Barracks
Team pages: Moyale Barracks · Kamuzu Barracks
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.23Total
Moyale Barracks1.36
Kamuzu Barracks0.87
1X2
Moyale Barracks
Draw
Kamuzu Barracks
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Moyale Barracks
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Kamuzu Barracks
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Moyale Barracks
4–1–1
Kamuzu Barracks
(6 last)
- Moyale Barracks2-1Kamuzu Barracks
- Kamuzu Barracks0-2Moyale Barracks
- Kamuzu Barracks0-0Moyale Barracks
- Moyale Barracks0-1Kamuzu Barracks
- Kamuzu Barracks0-1Moyale Barracks
- Moyale Barracks1-0Kamuzu Barracks
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Moyale Barracks 1510 · Kamuzu Barracks 1459
| Moyale Barracks | Draw | Kamuzu Barracks | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 30% | 23% |
| Market | 47% | 31% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.23 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Moyale Barracks (rating 1510 vs 1459).
- H2H favours Moyale Barracks: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Moyale Barracks | Kamuzu Barracks | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 0.8 | 1.2 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.2 | 0.5 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.2 | 1.5 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0.4 | 2 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Moyale Barracks 4–1–1 Kamuzu Barracks
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/25 Malawi Super League | Moyale Barracks | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Kamuzu Barracks |
| 13/04/25 Malawi Super League | Kamuzu Barracks | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Moyale Barracks |
| 18/05/24 Malawi Super League | Kamuzu Barracks | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Moyale Barracks |
| 11/09/21 Malawi Super League | Moyale Barracks | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Kamuzu Barracks |
| 17/04/21 Malawi Super League | Kamuzu Barracks | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Moyale Barracks |
| 07/09/19 Malawi Super League | Moyale Barracks | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Kamuzu Barracks |
Standings · Malawi Super League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Silver Strikers | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 5 | 28 |
| 2 | Big Bullets | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 26 |
| 3 | Mighty Wanderers | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 24 | 8 | 26 |
| 4 | Blue Eagles | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 14 | 22 |
| 5 | Masters FC | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 21 |
| 6 | Red Lions | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 19 |
| 7 | Chitipa United | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 19 |
| 8 | Mitundu Baptist FC | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 13 | 18 |
| 9 | Ekhaya FC | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 11 | 17 |
| 10 | Moyale Barracks | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 14 | 17 |
| 11 | Civil Service Utd | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 14 | 14 |
| 12 | MAFCO | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 13 |
| 13 | Dedza Dynamos | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 13 |
| 14 | Karonga United | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 22 | 12 |
| 15 | Kamuzu Barracks | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 19 | 11 |
| 16 | Creck SC | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 18 | 6 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Moyale Barracks | Kamuzu Barracks |
|---|---|---|
| Red Lions | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Mighty Wanderers | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Masters FC | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Blue Eagles | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Big Bullets | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Creck SC | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Ekhaya FC | 0-2 L | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 3 L | 2 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Moyale Barracks (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Moyale Barracks
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Red Lions Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | Mighty Wanderers Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 25/07 | Civil Service Utd Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 18/07 | Masters FC Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 04/07 | Blue Eagles Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 28/06 | Karonga United Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 21/06 | Mitundu Baptist FC Malawi Super League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 31/05 | Big Bullets Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 23/05 | Creck SC Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Ekhaya FC Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
Kamuzu Barracks
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Mighty Wanderers Malawi Super League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 09/08 | Red Lions Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 26/07 | MAFCO Malawi Super League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 19/07 | Blue Eagles Malawi Super League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 05/07 | Masters FC Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 27/06 | Chitipa United Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 21/06 | Big Bullets Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 31/05 | Dedza Dynamos Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Ekhaya FC Malawi Super League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Creck SC Malawi Super League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Moyale Barracks vs Kamuzu Barracks?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Moyale Barracks win (47%). Probabilities: Moyale Barracks 47%, draw 31%, Kamuzu Barracks 22%.
How many goals are expected in Moyale Barracks vs Kamuzu Barracks?
The model expects 2.23 goals (Moyale Barracks 1.36 · Kamuzu Barracks 0.87), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Moyale Barracks vs Kamuzu Barracks?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.