Football · Peru Liga 2 · 05/09, 17:45

Prediction: Academia Deportiva Cantolao vs Deportivo Llacuabamba

Team pages: Academia Deportiva Cantolao · Deportivo Llacuabamba

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.31Total

Academia Deportiva Cantolao0.88

Deportivo Llacuabamba1.43

1X2

22% 28% 49%

Academia Deportiva Cantolao Draw Deportivo Llacuabamba

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Academia Deportiva Cantolao 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLDDLDL

Deportivo Llacuabamba 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWDWLLWDLD

Head-to-head

Academia Deportiva Cantolao 1–3 Deportivo Llacuabamba (4 last)

Deportivo Llacuabamba3-0Academia Deportiva Cantolao
Academia Deportiva Cantolao1-0Deportivo Llacuabamba
Deportivo Llacuabamba4-3Academia Deportiva Cantolao
Deportivo Llacuabamba3-1Academia Deportiva Cantolao

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Academia Deportiva Cantolao 1420 · Deportivo Llacuabamba 1501

	Academia Deportiva Cantolao	Draw	Deportivo Llacuabamba
Our model	22%	29%	49%
Market	23%	27%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 2.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Llacuabamba (rating 1420 vs 1501).
H2H favours Deportivo Llacuabamba: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Academia Deportiva Cantolao	Deportivo Llacuabamba
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 2.2	1.1 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 1.2	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.7	1.7 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.8	5.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.90

X3.30

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.95

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.90▲	Pinn 4.08 ★
X	3.25 → 3.30▲	Bet365 3.30
2	1.90 → 1.80▼	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:32 +3’	3.60	3.25	1.90
08:58 +46’	3.90▲	3.30▲	1.80▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:26 +1’	4.08	3.23	1.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Academia Deportiva Cantolao 1–0–3 Deportivo Llacuabamba

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Peru Liga 2	Deportivo Llacuabamba	3-0 HT 3-0	Academia Deportiva Cantolao
20/09/25 Peru Liga 2	Academia Deportiva Cantolao	1-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Llacuabamba
15/08/25 Peru Liga 2	Deportivo Llacuabamba	4-3 HT 2-1	Academia Deportiva Cantolao
09/02/20 Peru Liga 1	Deportivo Llacuabamba	3-1 HT 2-1	Academia Deportiva Cantolao

Standings · Peru Liga 2 · Liga 2 2026, Group A

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Comercio	14	8	5	1	18	4	29
2	Deportivo Llacuabamba	14	8	3	3	21	7	27
3	Carlos Manucci	15	8	3	4	18	10	27
4	Pirata FC	14	7	3	4	23	16	24
5	CD Universidad San Martin	14	7	2	5	24	14	23
6	Cesar Vallejo	14	5	4	5	14	12	19
7	Club Ada Jaen	13	3	6	4	12	12	15
8	Academia Deportiva Cantolao	14	2	4	8	12	25	10
9	FC San Marcos	14	0	0	14	0	42	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Academia Deportiva Cantolao	Deportivo Llacuabamba
Carlos Manucci	0-2 L	0-1 L
Pirata FC	1-1 D	1-3 L
Union Comercio	0-4 L	1-1 D
Cesar Vallejo	1-1 D	0-2 L
Club Ada Jaen	0-0 D	0-0 D
CD Universidad San Martin	0-4 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Llacuabamba (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Academia Deportiva Cantolao

LLLLLDDLDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Carlos Manucci Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-2	7	6	L
23/08	Pirata FC Peru Liga 2	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
07/08	Union Comercio Peru Liga 2	0-2	0-4	0	2	L
01/08	Cesar Vallejo Peru Liga 2	0-1	1-1	6	7	D
19/07	Club Ada Jaen Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	2	9	D
31/05	CD Universidad San Martin Peru Liga 2	0-2	0-4	1	9	L
24/05	Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Liga 2	0-3	0-3	7	3	L
17/05	Carlos Manucci Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-4	4	5	L
11/05	Pirata FC Peru Liga 2	0-2	1-2	6	0	L
26/04	Union Comercio Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-1	9	6	L

Deportivo Llacuabamba

WWDWLLWDLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Union Comercio Peru Liga 2	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
23/08	Cesar Vallejo Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-2	2	9	L
08/08	Club Ada Jaen Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
01/08	CD Universidad San Martin Peru Liga 2	1-0	3-0	10	4	W
19/07	Carlos Manucci Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-1	4	8	L
01/06	Pirata FC Peru Liga 2	0-1	1-3	2	5	L
24/05	Academia Deportiva Cantolao Peru Liga 2	3-0	3-0	4	3	W
17/05	Union Comercio Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	2	12	D
09/05	Cesar Vallejo Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-0	1	8	W
25/04	Club Ada Jaen Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-0	0	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Academia Deportiva Cantolao vs Deportivo Llacuabamba?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Deportivo Llacuabamba win (49%). Probabilities: Academia Deportiva Cantolao 22%, draw 28%, Deportivo Llacuabamba 49%.

How many goals are expected in Academia Deportiva Cantolao vs Deportivo Llacuabamba?

The model expects 2.31 goals (Academia Deportiva Cantolao 0.88 · Deportivo Llacuabamba 1.43), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Academia Deportiva Cantolao vs Deportivo Llacuabamba?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.