Football · Peru Liga 2 · 13/09, 22:15

Prediction: CD Universidad San Martin vs Academia Deportiva Cantolao

Team pages: CD Universidad San Martin · Academia Deportiva Cantolao

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.81Total

CD Universidad San Martin2.64

Academia Deportiva Cantolao1.17

1X2

67% 19% 13%

CD Universidad San Martin Draw Academia Deportiva Cantolao

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Universidad San Martin 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DWLWLWLWWL

Academia Deportiva Cantolao 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLDDLDLW

Head-to-head

CD Universidad San Martin 2–1–3 Academia Deportiva Cantolao (6 last)

Academia Deportiva Cantolao4-3CD Universidad San Martin
Academia Deportiva Cantolao0-4CD Universidad San Martin
Academia Deportiva Cantolao1-0CD Universidad San Martin
CD Universidad San Martin0-1Academia Deportiva Cantolao
CD Universidad San Martin1-0Academia Deportiva Cantolao
Academia Deportiva Cantolao0-0CD Universidad San Martin

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Universidad San Martin 1506 · Academia Deportiva Cantolao 1437

	CD Universidad San Martin	Draw	Academia Deportiva Cantolao
Our model	68%	18%	14%
Market	67%	21%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 3.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +1.1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Universidad San Martin (rating 1506 vs 1437).
H2H favours Academia Deportiva Cantolao: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Universidad San Martin	Academia Deportiva Cantolao
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.1	0.7 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.3 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.2	1.9 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	4.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.33

X4.33

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)2.00

2 (+1.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.37 ★
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
21:55 +8’	1.33	4.33	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:28 +4’	1.33	4.37	6.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Universidad San Martin 2–1–3 Academia Deportiva Cantolao

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/06/26 Peru Copa de la Liga	Academia Deportiva Cantolao	4-3 HT 2-1	CD Universidad San Martin
31/05/26 Peru Liga 2	Academia Deportiva Cantolao	0-4 HT 0-2	CD Universidad San Martin
07/09/25 Peru Liga 2	Academia Deportiva Cantolao	1-0 HT 0-0	CD Universidad San Martin
03/08/25 Peru Liga 2	CD Universidad San Martin	0-1 HT 0-0	Academia Deportiva Cantolao
25/05/25 Peru Liga 2	CD Universidad San Martin	1-0 HT 0-0	Academia Deportiva Cantolao
06/04/25 Peru Liga 2	Academia Deportiva Cantolao	0-0 HT 0-0	CD Universidad San Martin

Standings · Peru Liga 2 · Liga 2 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Comercio	15	9	5	1	19	4	32
2	Carlos Manucci	16	9	3	4	22	12	30
3	Deportivo Llacuabamba	15	8	3	4	23	10	27
4	Pirata FC	15	7	3	5	25	20	24
5	CD Universidad San Martin	15	7	2	6	24	15	23
6	Cesar Vallejo	15	5	4	6	14	13	19
7	Club Ada Jaen	14	4	6	4	13	12	18
8	Academia Deportiva Cantolao	15	3	4	8	15	27	13
9	FC San Marcos	14	0	0	14	0	42	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Universidad San Martin	Academia Deportiva Cantolao
Union Comercio	0-1 L	0-4 L
Cesar Vallejo	2-0 W	1-1 D
Club Ada Jaen	3-1 W	0-0 D
Deportivo Llacuabamba	0-3 L	3-2 W
Carlos Manucci	2-0 W	0-2 L
Pirata FC	2-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: CD Universidad San Martin (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Universidad San Martin

DWLWLWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Union Comercio Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
29/08	Cesar Vallejo Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
16/08	Club Ada Jaen Peru Liga 2	2-0	3-1	1	6	W
01/08	Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-3	1	4	L
25/07	Carlos Manucci Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
20/07	Pirata FC Peru Liga 2	2-1	2-3	8	8	L
31/05	Academia Deportiva Cantolao Peru Liga 2	2-0	4-0	6	9	W
23/05	Union Comercio Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
17/05	Cesar Vallejo Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
03/05	Club Ada Jaen Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-2	6	2	D

Academia Deportiva Cantolao

LLLLDDLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Liga 2	2-1	3-2	5	5	W
29/08	Carlos Manucci Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-2	7	6	L
23/08	Pirata FC Peru Liga 2	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
07/08	Union Comercio Peru Liga 2	0-2	0-4	0	2	L
01/08	Cesar Vallejo Peru Liga 2	0-1	1-1	6	7	D
19/07	Club Ada Jaen Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
31/05	CD Universidad San Martin Peru Liga 2	0-2	0-4	1	9	L
24/05	Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Liga 2	0-3	0-3	7	3	L
17/05	Carlos Manucci Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-4	4	5	L
11/05	Pirata FC Peru Liga 2	0-2	1-2	6	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Universidad San Martin vs Academia Deportiva Cantolao?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Universidad San Martin win (67%). Probabilities: CD Universidad San Martin 67%, draw 19%, Academia Deportiva Cantolao 13%.

How many goals are expected in CD Universidad San Martin vs Academia Deportiva Cantolao?

The model expects 3.81 goals (CD Universidad San Martin 2.64 · Academia Deportiva Cantolao 1.17), with a 58% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Universidad San Martin vs Academia Deportiva Cantolao?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.