Football · Peru Liga 2 · 13/09, 22:15

Prediction: Club Ada Jaen vs Union Comercio

Team pages: Club Ada Jaen · Union Comercio

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.72Total

Club Ada Jaen0.99

Union Comercio0.73

1X2

41% 33% 26%

Club Ada Jaen Draw Union Comercio

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 52% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

0-0 19%

Recent form · 10 last

Club Ada Jaen 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDDLDWLDLW

Union Comercio 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

DDWWDWWDDW

Head-to-head

Club Ada Jaen 2–2 Union Comercio (4 last)

Union Comercio1-0Club Ada Jaen
Club Ada Jaen2-0Union Comercio
Union Comercio2-0Club Ada Jaen
Club Ada Jaen1-0Union Comercio

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Club Ada Jaen 1493 · Union Comercio 1531

	Club Ada Jaen	Draw	Union Comercio
Our model	39%	36%	25%
Market	42%	31%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 1.72 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Club Ada Jaen	Union Comercio
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.1	1 / 0.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.6	0.5 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.4	2.9 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.3	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X2.88

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.98

Under 21.82

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 1.55

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 03:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 1.80▼	Pinn 1.92 ★
X	2.88 → 3.00▲	Bet365 3.00
2	3.30 → 4.33▲	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 13.2%

Time*	1	X	2
21:55 +8’	2.15	2.88	3.30
04:33 +6’	2.10▼	2.88	3.40▲
03:11 +5’	1.80▼	3.00▲	4.33▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:29 +3’	1.92	2.90	3.76

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 1 odds move recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Club Ada Jaen 2–0–2 Union Comercio

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Peru Liga 2	Union Comercio	1-0 HT 0-0	Club Ada Jaen
13/09/25 Peru Liga 2	Club Ada Jaen	2-0 HT 1-0	Union Comercio
10/08/25 Peru Liga 2	Union Comercio	2-0 HT 0-0	Club Ada Jaen
23/03/25 America Friendlies	Club Ada Jaen	1-0 HT 0-0	Union Comercio

Standings · Peru Liga 2 · Liga 2 2026, Group A

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Comercio	15	9	5	1	19	4	32
2	Carlos Manucci	16	9	3	4	22	12	30
3	Deportivo Llacuabamba	15	8	3	4	23	10	27
4	Pirata FC	15	7	3	5	25	20	24
5	CD Universidad San Martin	15	7	2	6	24	15	23
6	Cesar Vallejo	15	5	4	6	14	13	19
7	Club Ada Jaen	14	4	6	4	13	12	18
8	Academia Deportiva Cantolao	15	3	4	8	15	27	13
9	FC San Marcos	14	0	0	14	0	42	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Club Ada Jaen	Union Comercio
Cesar Vallejo	1-0 W	0-0 D
CD Universidad San Martin	1-3 L	1-0 W
Deportivo Llacuabamba	0-0 D	1-1 D
Carlos Manucci	0-2 L	0-0 D
Pirata FC	3-1 W	2-1 W
Academia Deportiva Cantolao	0-0 D	4-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Union Comercio (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Club Ada Jaen

LDDLDWLDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Cesar Vallejo Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
16/08	CD Universidad San Martin Peru Liga 2	0-2	1-3	8	6	L
08/08	Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
02/08	Carlos Manucci Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-2	5	8	L
26/07	Pirata FC Peru Liga 2	2-1	3-1	5	3	W
19/07	Academia Deportiva Cantolao Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
31/05	Union Comercio Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
25/05	Cesar Vallejo Peru Liga 2	0-1	1-1	3	9	D
03/05	CD Universidad San Martin Peru Liga 2	0-1	2-2	6	2	D
25/04	Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-1	2	3	L

Union Comercio

DDWWDWWDDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	CD Universidad San Martin Peru Liga 2	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
30/08	Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Liga 2	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
23/08	Carlos Manucci Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
17/08	Pirata FC Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-1	3	6	W
07/08	Academia Deportiva Cantolao Peru Liga 2	2-0	4-0	5	2	W
25/07	Cesar Vallejo Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
31/05	Club Ada Jaen Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-0	10	1	W
23/05	CD Universidad San Martin Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
17/05	Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	14	12	D
09/05	Carlos Manucci Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	8	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Club Ada Jaen vs Union Comercio?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Club Ada Jaen win (41%). Probabilities: Club Ada Jaen 41%, draw 33%, Union Comercio 26%.

How many goals are expected in Club Ada Jaen vs Union Comercio?

The model expects 1.72 goals (Club Ada Jaen 0.99 · Union Comercio 0.73), with a 58% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Club Ada Jaen vs Union Comercio?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.