Football · Peru Liga 2 · 06/09, 20:00

Prediction: Alianza Universidad vs Union Minas

Team pages: Alianza Universidad · Union Minas

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.57Total

Alianza Universidad1.51

Union Minas1.07

1X2

46% 28% 26%

Alianza Universidad Draw Union Minas

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Alianza Universidad 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLWLDDWL

Union Minas 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DLLWLWWWDW

Head-to-head

Alianza Universidad 2–0 Union Minas (2 last)

Alianza Universidad3-1Union Minas
Union Minas0-1Alianza Universidad

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza Universidad 1499 · Union Minas 1518

	Alianza Universidad	Draw	Union Minas
Our model	46%	28%	26%
Market	47%	27%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Alianza Universidad: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alianza Universidad	Union Minas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.9	1.7 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	4.6 / 0.9

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.30

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 12:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 1.91▼	Bet365 1.91
X	3.25 → 3.30▲	Bet365 3.30
2	3.20 → 3.40▲	Pinn 3.85 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
20:30 +2’	2.00	3.25	3.20
01:57 +4’	1.90▼	3.30▲	3.50▲
12:19 +7’	1.91▲	3.30	3.40▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:11 +16’	2.03	3.14	3.18
10:20 +8’	1.90▼	3.20▲	3.49▲
16:32 +75’	1.79▼	3.26▲	3.85▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza Universidad 2–0–0 Union Minas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/06/26 Peru Copa de la Liga	Alianza Universidad	3-1 HT 1-0	Union Minas
23/05/26 Peru Liga 2	Union Minas	0-1 HT 0-1	Alianza Universidad

Standings · Peru Liga 2 · Liga 2 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bentin Tacna Heroica	15	8	4	3	21	12	28
2	Comerciantes FC	16	6	8	2	24	15	26
3	Union Minas	14	5	6	3	22	11	21
4	Sport Huancayo II	15	6	3	6	19	15	21
5	Alianza Universidad	14	6	3	5	19	16	21
6	Santos FC	15	6	3	6	19	20	21
7	Ayacucho FC	15	5	4	6	19	19	19
8	CD Estudiantil CNI	15	4	4	7	24	20	16
9	Deportivo Binacional	15	2	3	10	10	49	9

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alianza Universidad	Union Minas
CD Estudiantil CNI	0-3 L	3-0 W
Bentin Tacna Heroica	1-0 W	1-2 L
Santos FC	3-3 D	1-0 W
Sport Huancayo II	1-1 D	2-1 W
Comerciantes FC	0-1 L	2-2 D
Ayacucho FC	3-2 W	3-1 W
Deportivo Binacional	1-2 L	8-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Union Minas (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alianza Universidad

DWWLWLDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	CD Estudiantil CNI Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-3	8	5	L
24/08	Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
17/08	Santos FC Peru Liga 2	1-1	3-3	2	5	D
31/07	Sport Huancayo II Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
24/07	Comerciantes FC Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
18/07	Ayacucho FC Peru Liga 2	2-1	3-2	6	1	W
31/05	Deportivo Binacional Peru Liga 2	0-1	1-2	12	3	L
23/05	Union Minas Peru Liga 2	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
16/05	CD Estudiantil CNI Peru Liga 2	2-0	2-0	4	4	W
09/05	Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	1	7	D

Union Minas

DLLWLWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Sport Huancayo II Peru Liga 2	0-0	2-1	3	8	W
22/08	Comerciantes FC Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-2	3	2	D
15/08	Ayacucho FC Peru Liga 2	0-0	3-1	5	6	W
07/08	Deportivo Binacional Peru Liga 2	3-0	8-1	–	–	W
24/07	CD Estudiantil CNI Peru Liga 2	1-0	3-0	3	8	W
19/07	Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Liga 2	1-1	1-2	1	9	L
29/05	Santos FC Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
23/05	Alianza Universidad Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
15/05	Sport Huancayo II Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-1	7	7	L
08/05	Comerciantes FC Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	6	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza Universidad vs Union Minas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alianza Universidad win (46%). Probabilities: Alianza Universidad 46%, draw 28%, Union Minas 26%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza Universidad vs Union Minas?

The model expects 2.57 goals (Alianza Universidad 1.51 · Union Minas 1.07), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza Universidad vs Union Minas?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.