Football · Peru Liga 2 · 04/09, 22:15

Prediction: Comerciantes FC vs Ayacucho FC

Team pages: Comerciantes FC · Ayacucho FC

See it on the live radar ↗

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.08Total

Comerciantes FC1.35

Ayacucho FC0.73

1X2

51% 30% 19%

Comerciantes FC Draw Ayacucho FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Comerciantes FC 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DWDDWLDDDL

Ayacucho FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWDDLWLWLW

Head-to-head

Comerciantes FC 2–2–2 Ayacucho FC (6 last)

Ayacucho FC0-0Comerciantes FC
Comerciantes FC1-1Ayacucho FC
Ayacucho FC1-0Comerciantes FC
Ayacucho FC0-2Comerciantes FC
Comerciantes FC2-1Ayacucho FC
Ayacucho FC2-0Comerciantes FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Comerciantes FC 1500 · Ayacucho FC 1495

	Comerciantes FC	Draw	Ayacucho FC
Our model	51%	31%	19%
Market	52%	29%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.08 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Comerciantes FC	Ayacucho FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.9	1.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/80/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 3.9	2.6 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	4.5 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.10

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.73▲	Pinn 1.74
X	3.30 → 3.10▼	Pinn 3.37 ★
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:25 +7’	1.67	3.30	4.50
22:12 +1’	1.73▲	3.10▼	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
11:34 +1’	1.65	3.38	4.49
22:11 +1’	1.74▲	3.37▼	4.17▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Comerciantes FC 2–2–2 Ayacucho FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
22/05/26 Peru Liga 2	Ayacucho FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Comerciantes FC
22/09/24 Peru Liga 2	Comerciantes FC	1-1 HT 1-1	Ayacucho FC
27/08/24 Peru Liga 2	Ayacucho FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Comerciantes FC
14/07/24 Peru Liga 2	Ayacucho FC	0-2 HT 0-1	Comerciantes FC
25/05/24 Peru Liga 2	Comerciantes FC	2-1 HT 0-0	Ayacucho FC
03/08/23 Peru Liga 2	Ayacucho FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Comerciantes FC

Standings · Peru Liga 2 · Liga 2 2026, Group B

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bentin Tacna Heroica	15	8	4	3	21	12	28
2	Comerciantes FC	15	5	8	2	19	14	23
3	Union Minas	14	5	6	3	22	11	21
4	Alianza Universidad	14	6	3	5	19	16	21
5	Ayacucho FC	14	5	4	5	18	14	19
6	Sport Huancayo II	14	5	3	6	12	15	18
7	Santos FC	14	5	3	6	15	19	18
8	CD Estudiantil CNI	14	4	4	6	23	16	16
9	Deportivo Binacional	14	2	3	9	10	42	9

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Comerciantes FC	Ayacucho FC
Deportivo Binacional	0-1 L	7-1 W
Union Minas	2-2 D	1-3 L
CD Estudiantil CNI	2-2 D	1-0 W
Bentin Tacna Heroica	2-2 D	0-2 L
Santos FC	0-1 L	2-0 W
Alianza Universidad	1-0 W	2-3 L
Sport Huancayo II	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Comerciantes FC

DWDDWLDDDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Deportivo Binacional Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
22/08	Union Minas Peru Liga 2	0-1	2-2	7	2	D
15/08	CD Estudiantil CNI Peru Liga 2	2-2	2-2	6	2	D
09/08	Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Liga 2	2-2	2-2	2	2	D
01/08	Santos FC Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
24/07	Alianza Universidad Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
18/07	Sport Huancayo II Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
22/05	Ayacucho FC Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
16/05	Deportivo Binacional Peru Liga 2	3-0	3-0	7	2	W
08/05	Union Minas Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	2	2	D

Ayacucho FC

DWDDLWLWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Deportivo Binacional Peru Liga 2	2-1	7-1	–	–	W
15/08	Union Minas Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-3	2	6	L
09/08	CD Estudiantil CNI Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
02/08	Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-2	3	9	L
26/07	Santos FC Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-0	7	7	W
18/07	Alianza Universidad Peru Liga 2	1-2	2-3	2	1	L
01/06	Sport Huancayo II Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
22/05	Comerciantes FC Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
09/05	Deportivo Binacional Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
02/05	Union Minas Peru Liga 2	0-1	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Comerciantes FC vs Ayacucho FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Comerciantes FC win (51%). Probabilities: Comerciantes FC 51%, draw 30%, Ayacucho FC 19%.

How many goals are expected in Comerciantes FC vs Ayacucho FC?

The model expects 2.08 goals (Comerciantes FC 1.35 · Ayacucho FC 0.73), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Comerciantes FC vs Ayacucho FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.