Football · Mozambique Mocambola · 26/08, 14:45

Prediction: Costa Do Sol vs Black Bulls

Team pages: Costa Do Sol · Black Bulls

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.67Total

Costa Do Sol0.81

Black Bulls0.86

1X2

31% 34% 35%

Costa Do Sol Draw Black Bulls

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 51% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

0-0 20%

Recent form · 10 last

Costa Do Sol 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWDLWWDWLW

Black Bulls 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WDWDWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Costa Do Sol 0–3–3 Black Bulls (6 last)

Black Bulls0-0Costa Do Sol
Costa Do Sol0-1Black Bulls
Black Bulls2-1Costa Do Sol
Black Bulls2-2Costa Do Sol
Black Bulls1-1Costa Do Sol
Black Bulls3-1Costa Do Sol

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Costa Do Sol 1540 · Black Bulls 1594

	Costa Do Sol	Draw	Black Bulls
Our model	30%	37%	33%
Market	32%	32%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 1.67 goals · Bet365 line 1.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Black Bulls (rating 1540 vs 1594).
H2H favours Black Bulls: 3-3-0.
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Costa Do Sol	Black Bulls
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.7	1.8 / 0.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	1 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.9	2.7 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.75

X2.80

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.77

Under 1.752.02

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 07:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.75▲	Bet365 2.75
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	2.75 → 2.50▼	Pinn 2.72 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
13:53 +10’	2.55	2.80	2.75
06:56 +6’	2.75▲	2.80	2.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:02 +2’	2.69	2.64	2.68
13:27 +1’	2.72▲	2.67▲	2.72▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Costa Do Sol 0–3–3 Black Bulls

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/05/26 Mozambique Mocambola	Black Bulls	0-0 HT 0-0	Costa Do Sol
09/11/25 Mozambique Mocambola	Costa Do Sol	0-1 HT 0-0	Black Bulls
29/06/25 Mozambique Mocambola	Black Bulls	2-1 HT 1-0	Costa Do Sol
05/04/25 Club Friendly List	Black Bulls	2-2 HT 0-0	Costa Do Sol
19/10/24 Mozambique Cup	Black Bulls	1-1 HT 1-0	Costa Do Sol
10/08/24 Mozambique Mocambola	Black Bulls	3-1 HT 1-0	Costa Do Sol

Standings · Mozambique Mocambola

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Black Bulls	14	9	5	0	20	4	32
2	Ferroviario Beira	14	7	7	0	18	6	28
3	Costa Do Sol	14	7	4	3	18	9	25
4	UD Songo	13	5	7	1	15	10	22
5	Ferroviario de Nampula	12	6	3	3	15	15	21
6	Ferroviario Lichinga	12	5	3	4	9	11	18
7	Ferroviario Maputo	15	4	4	7	10	11	16
8	Clube Ferroviário de Nacala	13	4	3	6	7	11	15
9	Vilankulo FC	13	2	8	3	15	13	14
10	AD Pemba	12	4	2	6	7	14	14
11	LD Sofala	14	3	5	6	7	15	14
12	Baía de Pemba F.C	14	2	7	5	5	8	13
13	CD Maxaquene	15	1	6	8	7	17	9
14	Chingale de Tete	13	0	6	7	2	11	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Costa Do Sol	Black Bulls
Baía de Pemba F.C	0-1 L	1-0 W
AD Pemba	2-0 W	2-0 W
Ferroviario de Nampula	0-0 D	3-1 W
Clube Ferroviário de Nacala	3-0 W	1-0 W
Vilankulo FC	2-1 W	1-1 D
Ferroviario Lichinga	1-2 L	1-0 W
Chingale de Tete	1-0 W	3-0 W
LD Sofala	1-1 D	4-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	7 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Black Bulls (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Costa Do Sol

DWDLWWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Ferroviario Maputo Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
19/08	Baía de Pemba F.C Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
15/08	AD Pemba Mozambique Mocambola	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
11/08	Ferroviario de Nampula Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
05/08	Clube Ferroviário de Nacala Mozambique Mocambola	2-0	3-0	4	3	W
19/07	Vilankulo FC Mozambique Mocambola	2-0	2-1	7	2	W
26/06	Ferroviario Lichinga Mozambique Mocambola	1-2	1-2	8	3	L
20/06	UD Songo Mozambique Mocambola	2-1	2-2	4	4	D
16/06	Chingale de Tete Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	1-0	9	5	W
20/05	LD Sofala Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	1-1	4	4	D

Black Bulls

WDWDWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	CD Maxaquene Mozambique Mocambola	2-0	2-0	5	2	W
17/08	Clube Ferroviário de Nacala Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
14/08	Ferroviario de Nampula Mozambique Mocambola	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
09/08	Baía de Pemba F.C Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
05/08	AD Pemba Mozambique Mocambola	2-0	2-0	3	5	W
24/07	Ferroviario Lichinga Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	1-0	9	5	W
28/06	Vilankulo FC Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	1-1	1	3	D
21/06	LD Sofala Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	4-1	5	1	W
17/06	Ferroviario Beira Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-0	13	5	D
21/05	Chingale de Tete Mozambique Mocambola	2-0	3-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Costa Do Sol vs Black Bulls?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Black Bulls win (35%). Probabilities: Costa Do Sol 31%, draw 34%, Black Bulls 35%.

How many goals are expected in Costa Do Sol vs Black Bulls?

The model expects 1.67 goals (Costa Do Sol 0.81 · Black Bulls 0.86), with a 52% chance of under 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Costa Do Sol vs Black Bulls?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.