Football · Mozambique Mocambola · 02/09, 14:45

Prediction: Ferroviario Maputo vs UD Songo

Team pages: Ferroviario Maputo · UD Songo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.83Total

Ferroviario Maputo0.9

UD Songo0.93

1X2

32% 34% 34%

Ferroviario Maputo Draw UD Songo

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 56% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Ferroviario Maputo 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWDWLLDW

UD Songo 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WWDDWDDDWL

Head-to-head

Ferroviario Maputo 3–3 UD Songo (6 last)

UD Songo2-0Ferroviario Maputo
UD Songo1-0Ferroviario Maputo
Ferroviario Maputo3-2UD Songo
Ferroviario Maputo0-1UD Songo
Ferroviario Maputo1-0UD Songo
Ferroviario Maputo1-0UD Songo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ferroviario Maputo 1491 · UD Songo 1536

	Ferroviario Maputo	Draw	UD Songo
Our model	32%	35%	33%
Market	33%	33%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 1.83 goals · Bet365 line 1.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours UD Songo (rating 1491 vs 1536).
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ferroviario Maputo	UD Songo
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.6	1.4 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.7	1.5 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.75

X2.70

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.85

Under 1.751.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 1.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:00 +10’	2.75	2.70	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ferroviario Maputo 3–0–3 UD Songo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/05/26 Mozambique Mocambola	UD Songo	2-0 HT 0-0	Ferroviario Maputo
05/11/25 Mozambique Mocambola	UD Songo	1-0 HT 0-0	Ferroviario Maputo
22/06/25 Mozambique Mocambola	Ferroviario Maputo	3-2 HT 3-1	UD Songo
26/06/24 Mozambique Mocambola	Ferroviario Maputo	0-1 HT 0-0	UD Songo
07/05/23 Mozambique Mocambola	Ferroviario Maputo	1-0 HT 1-0	UD Songo
07/12/22 Mozambique Cup	Ferroviario Maputo	1-0 HT 1-0	UD Songo

Standings · Mozambique Mocambola

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Black Bulls	16	10	5	1	23	8	35
2	Ferroviario Beira	15	8	7	0	20	7	31
3	Costa Do Sol	16	8	4	4	22	11	28
4	Ferroviario de Nampula	14	7	3	4	17	18	24
5	UD Songo	14	5	7	2	16	13	22
6	Ferroviario Lichinga	13	6	3	4	10	11	21
7	Ferroviario Maputo	16	5	4	7	11	11	19
8	AD Pemba	14	5	2	7	9	15	17
9	Clube Ferroviário de Nacala	13	4	3	6	7	11	15
10	LD Sofala	15	3	6	6	7	15	15
11	Vilankulo FC	14	2	8	4	16	15	14
12	Baía de Pemba F.C	14	2	7	5	5	8	13
13	CD Maxaquene	16	1	7	8	7	17	10
14	Chingale de Tete	14	0	6	8	2	12	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ferroviario Maputo	UD Songo
CD Maxaquene	2-2 D	2-1 W
Costa Do Sol	0-1 L	2-2 D
AD Pemba	2-0 W	3-0 W
Baía de Pemba F.C	0-0 D	1-1 D
Ferroviario Lichinga	2-0 W	1-1 D
Vilankulo FC	0-0 D	1-1 D
Ferroviario Beira	0-1 L	0-0 D
LD Sofala	2-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 5 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: UD Songo (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ferroviario Maputo

WLDWDWLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Chingale de Tete Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	1-0	11	2	W
25/08	CD Maxaquene Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	2-2	11	3	D
22/08	Costa Do Sol Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
18/08	Ferroviario de Nampula Mozambique Mocambola	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
09/08	AD Pemba Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
06/08	Baía de Pemba F.C Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
27/07	Ferroviario Lichinga Mozambique Mocambola	2-0	2-0	1	0	W
25/06	Vilankulo FC Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
21/06	Ferroviario Beira Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
18/06	LD Sofala Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	2-0	7	4	W

UD Songo

WWDDWDDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Black Bulls Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	1-3	3	5	L
23/08	LD Sofala Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
20/08	Ferroviario Beira Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
16/08	Vilankulo FC Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
07/08	Ferroviario Lichinga Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	1-1	3	1	D
01/07	AD Pemba Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
26/06	Baía de Pemba F.C Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
20/06	Costa Do Sol Mozambique Mocambola	1-2	2-2	3	4	D
17/06	CD Maxaquene Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	2-1	6	7	W
22/05	Ferroviario Maputo Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ferroviario Maputo vs UD Songo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an UD Songo win (34%). Probabilities: Ferroviario Maputo 32%, draw 34%, UD Songo 34%.

How many goals are expected in Ferroviario Maputo vs UD Songo?

The model expects 1.83 goals (Ferroviario Maputo 0.9 · UD Songo 0.93), with a 50% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Ferroviario Maputo vs UD Songo?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.