Football · Mozambique Mocambola · 02/09, 14:45

Prediction: Costa Do Sol vs LD Sofala

Team pages: Costa Do Sol · LD Sofala

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.26Total

Costa Do Sol1.57

LD Sofala0.69

1X2

57% 28% 15%

Costa Do Sol Draw LD Sofala

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Costa Do Sol 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DLWWDWLWWL

LD Sofala 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLDLLWLD

Head-to-head

Costa Do Sol 0–1–0 LD Sofala (1 last)

LD Sofala1-1Costa Do Sol

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Costa Do Sol 1539 · LD Sofala 1445

	Costa Do Sol	Draw	LD Sofala
Our model	57%	27%	15%
Market	57%	28%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Costa Do Sol (rating 1539 vs 1445).
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Costa Do Sol	LD Sofala
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.8	0.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.4	0.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.6	2.3 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.20

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.77

2 (+0.75)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 22.02

Under 21.77

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
12:00 +10’	1.57	3.20	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Costa Do Sol 0–1–0 LD Sofala

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/05/26 Mozambique Mocambola	LD Sofala	1-1 HT 0-0	Costa Do Sol

Standings · Mozambique Mocambola

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Black Bulls	16	10	5	1	23	8	35
2	Ferroviario Beira	15	8	7	0	20	7	31
3	Costa Do Sol	16	8	4	4	22	11	28
4	Ferroviario de Nampula	14	7	3	4	17	18	24
5	UD Songo	14	5	7	2	16	13	22
6	Ferroviario Lichinga	13	6	3	4	10	11	21
7	Ferroviario Maputo	16	5	4	7	11	11	19
8	AD Pemba	14	5	2	7	9	15	17
9	Clube Ferroviário de Nacala	13	4	3	6	7	11	15
10	LD Sofala	15	3	6	6	7	15	15
11	Vilankulo FC	14	2	8	4	16	15	14
12	Baía de Pemba F.C	14	2	7	5	5	8	13
13	CD Maxaquene	16	1	7	8	7	17	10
14	Chingale de Tete	14	0	6	8	2	12	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Costa Do Sol	LD Sofala
Black Bulls	3-0 W	1-4 L
Ferroviario Maputo	1-0 W	0-2 L
Baía de Pemba F.C	0-1 L	0-0 D
Ferroviario de Nampula	0-0 D	1-3 L
Clube Ferroviário de Nacala	3-0 W	0-0 D
Vilankulo FC	2-1 W	1-3 L
Ferroviario Lichinga	1-2 L	0-1 L
UD Songo	2-2 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Costa Do Sol (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Costa Do Sol

DLWWDWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Ferroviario Beira Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	1-2	6	3	L
26/08	Black Bulls Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	3-0	5	6	W
22/08	Ferroviario Maputo Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
19/08	Baía de Pemba F.C Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
15/08	AD Pemba Mozambique Mocambola	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
11/08	Ferroviario de Nampula Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
05/08	Clube Ferroviário de Nacala Mozambique Mocambola	2-0	3-0	4	3	W
19/07	Vilankulo FC Mozambique Mocambola	2-0	2-1	7	2	W
26/06	Ferroviario Lichinga Mozambique Mocambola	1-2	1-2	8	3	L
20/06	UD Songo Mozambique Mocambola	2-1	2-2	4	4	D

LD Sofala

LLDLDLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	CD Maxaquene Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
23/08	UD Songo Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
20/08	Chingale de Tete Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
17/08	Ferroviario Lichinga Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	0-1	7	2	L
09/08	Vilankulo FC Mozambique Mocambola	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
29/07	Baía de Pemba F.C Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
02/07	Ferroviario de Nampula Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	1-3	–	–	L
29/06	Clube Ferroviário de Nacala Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
21/06	Black Bulls Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	1-4	1	1	L
18/06	Ferroviario Maputo Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	0-2	7	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Costa Do Sol vs LD Sofala?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Costa Do Sol win (57%). Probabilities: Costa Do Sol 57%, draw 28%, LD Sofala 15%.

How many goals are expected in Costa Do Sol vs LD Sofala?

The model expects 2.26 goals (Costa Do Sol 1.57 · LD Sofala 0.69), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Costa Do Sol vs LD Sofala?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.