Football · Mozambique Mocambola · 01/09, 14:45

Prediction: Baía de Pemba F.C vs Ferroviario Lichinga

Team pages: Baía de Pemba F.C · Ferroviario Lichinga

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.58Total

Baía de Pemba F.C0.87

Ferroviario Lichinga0.71

1X2

37% 36% 28%

Baía de Pemba F.C Draw Ferroviario Lichinga

Markets

Under 1.5 goals 52% Not both to score 56%

Most likely score

0-0 22%

Recent form · 10 last

Baía de Pemba F.C 2-7-1 (W-D-L)

DDDDDLDWDW

Ferroviario Lichinga 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLLDWLWW

Head-to-head

Baía de Pemba F.C 0–2–2 Ferroviario Lichinga (4 last)

Ferroviario Lichinga1-0Baía de Pemba F.C
Ferroviario Lichinga3-0Baía de Pemba F.C
Baía de Pemba F.C2-2Ferroviario Lichinga
Baía de Pemba F.C0-0Ferroviario Lichinga

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Baía de Pemba F.C 1495 · Ferroviario Lichinga 1537

	Baía de Pemba F.C	Draw	Ferroviario Lichinga
Our model	36%	38%	26%
Market	38%	34%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 1.58 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ferroviario Lichinga (rating 1495 vs 1537).
H2H favours Ferroviario Lichinga: 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Baía de Pemba F.C	Ferroviario Lichinga
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 4.3	2.5 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.35

X2.63

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.80

Under 1.752.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 1.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.45▲	Bet365 2.45
X	2.63 → 2.75▲	Bet365 2.75
2	3.10 → 2.88▼	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
13:01 +2’	2.35	2.63	3.10
14:01 +4’	2.45▲	2.75▲	2.88▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 1 odds move recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Baía de Pemba F.C 0–2–2 Ferroviario Lichinga

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Mozambique Mocambola	Ferroviario Lichinga	1-0 HT 0-0	Baía de Pemba F.C
19/11/25 Mozambique Mocambola	Ferroviario Lichinga	3-0 HT 2-0	Baía de Pemba F.C
10/08/25 Mozambique Mocambola	Baía de Pemba F.C	2-2 HT 1-2	Ferroviario Lichinga
04/05/25 Mozambique Cup	Baía de Pemba F.C	0-0 HT 0-0	Ferroviario Lichinga

Standings · Mozambique Mocambola

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Black Bulls	16	10	5	1	23	8	35
2	Ferroviario Beira	15	8	7	0	20	7	31
3	Costa Do Sol	16	8	4	4	22	11	28
4	Ferroviario de Nampula	14	7	3	4	17	18	24
5	UD Songo	14	5	7	2	16	13	22
6	Ferroviario Lichinga	13	6	3	4	10	11	21
7	Ferroviario Maputo	16	5	4	7	11	11	19
8	AD Pemba	14	5	2	7	9	15	17
9	Clube Ferroviário de Nacala	13	4	3	6	7	11	15
10	LD Sofala	15	3	6	6	7	15	15
11	Vilankulo FC	14	2	8	4	16	15	14
12	Baía de Pemba F.C	14	2	7	5	5	8	13
13	CD Maxaquene	16	1	7	8	7	17	10
14	Chingale de Tete	14	0	6	8	2	12	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Baía de Pemba F.C	Ferroviario Lichinga
Clube Ferroviário de Nacala	1-0 W	0-0 D
Costa Do Sol	1-0 W	2-1 W
CD Maxaquene	0-0 D	2-1 W
Black Bulls	0-1 L	0-1 L
Ferroviario Maputo	0-0 D	0-2 L
LD Sofala	0-0 D	1-0 W
Chingale de Tete	0-0 D	1-0 W
UD Songo	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 5 D 1 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Ferroviario Lichinga (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Baía de Pemba F.C

DDDDDLDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/08	Clube Ferroviário de Nacala Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
22/08	Ferroviario de Nampula Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
19/08	Costa Do Sol Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
14/08	CD Maxaquene Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
09/08	Black Bulls Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
06/08	Ferroviario Maputo Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-0	3	1	D
29/07	LD Sofala Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
01/07	Chingale de Tete Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
26/06	UD Songo Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
18/06	Vilankulo FC Mozambique Mocambola	0-2	2-2	7	4	D

Ferroviario Lichinga

DWWLLDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	AD Pemba Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
17/08	LD Sofala Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
14/08	Ferroviario Beira Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	0-3	6	3	L
10/08	Chingale de Tete Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
07/08	UD Songo Mozambique Mocambola	1-0	1-1	6	1	D
27/07	Ferroviario Maputo Mozambique Mocambola	0-2	0-2	2	0	L
24/07	Black Bulls Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
29/06	CD Maxaquene Mozambique Mocambola	0-1	2-1	11	1	W
26/06	Costa Do Sol Mozambique Mocambola	2-1	2-1	2	3	W
20/06	Clube Ferroviário de Nacala Mozambique Mocambola	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Baía de Pemba F.C vs Ferroviario Lichinga?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Baía de Pemba F.C win (37%). Probabilities: Baía de Pemba F.C 37%, draw 36%, Ferroviario Lichinga 28%.

How many goals are expected in Baía de Pemba F.C vs Ferroviario Lichinga?

The model expects 1.58 goals (Baía de Pemba F.C 0.87 · Ferroviario Lichinga 0.71), with a 54% chance of under 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Baía de Pemba F.C vs Ferroviario Lichinga?

The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.