Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 03/09, 02:30

Prediction: Deportes Limache vs Nublense

Team pages: Deportes Limache · Nublense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.47Total

Deportes Limache1.82

Nublense1.65

1X2

41% 26% 34%

Deportes Limache Draw Nublense

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportes Limache 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Nublense 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLDWDWDWWL

Head-to-head

Deportes Limache 0–2–1 Nublense (3 last)

Nublense1-1Deportes Limache
Deportes Limache0-1Nublense
Nublense1-1Deportes Limache

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportes Limache 1472 · Nublense 1540

	Deportes Limache	Draw	Nublense
Our model	41%	24%	34%
Market	40%	27%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nublense (rating 1472 vs 1540).
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportes Limache	Nublense
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.1	1.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.9	2.6 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.8	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.40

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 1 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.32
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.55 ★
2	2.80 → 2.80	Pinn 2.92

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
01:06 +12’	2.30	3.40	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:18	2.30	3.51	2.89
02:20	2.32▲	3.55▲	2.92▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportes Limache 0–2–1 Nublense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/02/26 Chile Liga de Primera	Nublense	1-1 HT 0-1	Deportes Limache
26/07/25 Chile Liga de Primera	Deportes Limache	0-1 HT 0-0	Nublense
23/02/25 Chile Liga de Primera	Nublense	1-1 HT 0-0	Deportes Limache

Standings · Chile Liga de Primera

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Colo Colo	20	16	1	3	42	20	49
2	Universidad de Chile	20	10	6	4	27	15	36
3	Universidad Catolica	20	10	3	7	43	29	33
4	Everton de Vina	21	9	6	6	34	23	33
5	Palestino	21	10	3	8	32	29	33
6	Nublense	20	8	8	4	26	24	32
7	Deportes Concepcion	21	9	3	9	24	24	30
8	Deportes Limache	20	8	3	9	38	34	27
9	Coquimbo Unido	19	7	5	7	26	24	26
10	La Serena	20	5	9	6	31	34	24
11	O'Higgins	20	7	3	10	24	31	24
12	Huachipato	20	7	3	10	29	39	24
13	Audax Italiano	20	5	7	8	23	26	22
14	Cobresal	21	6	3	12	31	39	21
15	Universidad de Concepcion	19	5	4	10	14	33	19
16	Union La Calera	20	3	5	12	17	37	14

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportes Limache	Nublense
Huachipato	3-1 W	2-2 D
O'Higgins	3-1 W	0-2 L
Colo Colo	1-3 L	2-6 L
Deportes Concepcion	2-3 L	0-1 L
Universidad Catolica	0-2 L	2-1 W
Audax Italiano	2-2 D	2-2 D
Universidad de Concepcion	3-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Deportes Limache (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportes Limache

WDLLLLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera	0-2	0-3	2	9	L
22/08	Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera	3-0	3-1	6	7	W
15/08	Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	1-3	3	2	L
09/08	O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera	2-0	3-1	9	6	W
25/07	Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	1-3	8	4	L
14/06	Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	2-3	3	1	L
31/05	Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	2-3	4	6	L
17/05	Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera	0-2	0-2	2	8	L
25/04	Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	2-2	4	4	D
18/04	Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	3-0	8	3	W

Nublense

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
23/08	Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	2-1	2	8	W
16/08	Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera	2-0	2-1	10	2	W
11/08	Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	2-2	1	5	D
26/07	Palestino Chile Liga de Primera	2-0	2-0	2	5	W
14/06	Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera	1-2	2-2	10	5	D
30/05	Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
23/05	Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	2-0	2-2	2	4	D
17/05	Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera	1-2	2-6	4	1	L
25/04	O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera	0-2	0-2	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportes Limache vs Nublense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportes Limache win (41%). Probabilities: Deportes Limache 41%, draw 26%, Nublense 34%.

How many goals are expected in Deportes Limache vs Nublense?

The model expects 3.47 goals (Deportes Limache 1.82 · Nublense 1.65), with a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportes Limache vs Nublense?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.