Football · Paraguay Division Intermedia · 28/08, 21:00

Prediction: 3 de Noviembre vs Independiente FBC

Team pages: 3 de Noviembre · Independiente FBC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

3 de Noviembre1.18

Independiente FBC1.52

1X2

28% 28% 44%

3 de Noviembre Draw Independiente FBC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

3 de Noviembre 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDDLLLLLWW

Independiente FBC 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

WLDDLDDDWD

Head-to-head

3 de Noviembre 0–1 Independiente FBC (1 last)

Independiente FBC2-03 de Noviembre

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · 3 de Noviembre 1445 · Independiente FBC 1550

	3 de Noviembre	Draw	Independiente FBC
Our model	28%	28%	44%
Market	28%	28%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente FBC (rating 1445 vs 1550).
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	3 de Noviembre	Independiente FBC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.6	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.9	2.6 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.5	4.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.20

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
19:22 +10’	3.20	3.20	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · 3 de Noviembre 0–0–1 Independiente FBC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Independiente FBC	2-0 HT 2-0	3 de Noviembre

Standings · Paraguay Division Intermedia

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes	20	13	4	3	31	18	43
2	General Caballero JLM	20	12	4	4	41	24	40
3	Deportivo Santaní	20	12	3	5	32	18	39
4	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval	20	10	5	5	32	22	35
5	Sol de America	20	6	12	2	25	17	30
6	Resistencia FC	20	7	8	5	22	22	29
7	Independiente FBC	20	6	9	5	28	26	27
8	Club Atlético Tembetary	20	7	5	8	27	29	26
9	Carapegua	20	7	4	9	23	34	25
10	Guairena FC	20	6	6	8	19	23	24
11	Deportivo Capiata	20	5	9	6	24	26	24
12	Fernando de la Mora	20	6	5	9	22	30	23
13	Paraguari AC	20	5	5	10	21	27	20
14	Tacuary	20	3	9	8	23	32	18
15	Encarnacion FC	20	4	3	13	18	28	15
16	3 de Noviembre	20	2	7	11	18	30	13

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	3 de Noviembre	Independiente FBC
Tacuary	1-0 W	2-2 D
Club Atlético Tembetary	3-0 W	2-2 D
Club Dr Benjamin Aceval	1-2 L	1-2 L
Carapegua	0-1 L	2-0 W
Paraguari AC	1-1 D	2-3 L
General Caballero JLM	2-3 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: 3 de Noviembre (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

3 de Noviembre

LDDLLLLLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Tacuary Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
17/08	Club Atlético Tembetary Paraguay Division Intermedia	2-0	3-0	3	6	W
09/08	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	1-2	9	4	L
03/08	Carapegua Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
28/07	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
19/07	Encarnacion FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-2	4	4	L
11/07	Deportivo Santaní Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-2	0-4	1	3	L
03/07	Fernando de la Mora Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	2-2	5	9	D
28/06	Paraguari AC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	1-1	7	5	D
09/06	General Caballero JLM Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	2-3	1	9	L

Independiente FBC

WLDDLDDDWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	General Caballero JLM Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
15/08	Guairena FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	2-1	7	9	W
07/08	Resistencia FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
02/08	Sol de America Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	1-1	6	8	D
29/07	Deportivo Capiata Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
18/07	Paraguari AC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	2-3	1	7	L
13/07	Tacuary Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-2	2-2	7	2	D
08/07	Club Atlético Tembetary Paraguay Division Intermedia	2-2	2-2	6	6	D
30/06	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-2	5	2	L
06/06	Carapegua Paraguay Division Intermedia	2-0	2-0	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in 3 de Noviembre vs Independiente FBC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Independiente FBC win (44%). Probabilities: 3 de Noviembre 28%, draw 28%, Independiente FBC 44%.

How many goals are expected in 3 de Noviembre vs Independiente FBC?

The model expects 2.7 goals (3 de Noviembre 1.18 · Independiente FBC 1.52), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in 3 de Noviembre vs Independiente FBC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.