Football · Denmark Superligaen · 21/08, 19:00

Prediction: AGF Aarhus vs Odense BK

Team pages: AGF Aarhus · Odense BK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

AGF Aarhus2.09

Odense BK1.06

1X2

60% 22% 18%

AGF Aarhus Draw Odense BK

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

AGF Aarhus 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLDWDWLL

Odense BK 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

DLWWLLLWLL

Head-to-head

AGF Aarhus 4–1–1 Odense BK (6 last)

AGF Aarhus2-1Odense BK
AGF Aarhus3-1Odense BK
Odense BK1-0AGF Aarhus
Odense BK1-5AGF Aarhus
AGF Aarhus0-0Odense BK
AGF Aarhus4-1Odense BK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AGF Aarhus 1548 · Odense BK 1438

	AGF Aarhus	Draw	Odense BK
Our model	60%	22%	18%
Market	60%	22%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AGF Aarhus (rating 1548 vs 1438).
H2H favours AGF Aarhus: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AGF Aarhus	Odense BK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.5	0.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.9	2.7 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	2.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.10

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.88

2 (+1)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:01 +2’	1.53	4.10	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · AGF Aarhus 4–1–1 Odense BK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/02/26 Denmark Superligaen	AGF Aarhus	2-1 HT 0-1	Odense BK
14/12/25 Denmark Cup	AGF Aarhus	3-1 HT 2-0	Odense BK
11/12/25 Denmark Cup	Odense BK	1-0 HT 0-0	AGF Aarhus
18/08/25 Denmark Superligaen	Odense BK	1-5 HT 1-2	AGF Aarhus
06/07/25 Europe Friendlies	AGF Aarhus	0-0 HT 0-0	Odense BK
16/01/25 Europe Friendlies	AGF Aarhus	4-1 HT 2-1	Odense BK

Standings · Denmark Superligaen

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brondby	3	2	1	0	4	1	7
2	Viborg	4	2	1	1	3	2	7
3	FC Copenhagen	2	2	0	0	6	3	6
4	Midtjylland	2	2	0	0	5	3	6
5	Randers FC	3	1	1	1	3	2	4
6	FC Nordsjaelland	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
7	Silkeborg IF	3	1	1	1	3	4	4
8	Odense BK	3	1	0	2	1	2	3
9	AGF Aarhus	3	0	2	1	4	5	2
10	Sonderjyske	3	0	1	2	2	4	1
11	Lyngby	3	0	1	2	4	7	1
12	AC Horsens	3	0	1	2	2	5	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AGF Aarhus	Odense BK
Viborg	1-2 L	0-1 L
Brondby	1-1 D	0-4 L
AC Horsens	2-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: AGF Aarhus (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

AGF Aarhus

DWWLDWDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Viborg Denmark Superligaen	1-1	1-2	10	1	L
11/08	Sabah UEFA Champions League Qualifying	0-0	0-4	4	3	L
05/08	Sabah UEFA Champions League Qualifying	1-0	2-1	6	4	W
01/08	Lyngby Denmark Superligaen	1-0	2-2	2	5	D
29/07	Lech Poznan UEFA Champions League Qualifying	1-0	3-0	3	6	W
25/07	Brondby Denmark Superligaen	0-0	1-1	10	6	D
21/07	Lech Poznan UEFA Champions League Qualifying	0-2	1-4	4	4	L
15/07	AC Horsens Europe Friendlies	0-0	2-0	1	4	W
05/07	Motherwell Europe Friendlies	1-0	4-0	6	3	W
27/06	Viborg Europe Friendlies	1-1	1-1	13	1	D

Odense BK

DLWWLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	AC Horsens Denmark Superligaen	1-1	1-2	9	1	L
10/08	Silkeborg IF Denmark Superligaen	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
03/08	Sonderjyske Denmark Superligaen	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
24/07	Viborg Denmark Superligaen	0-0	0-1	10	3	L
17/07	Midtjylland Club Friendly List	1-3	1-4	5	3	L
11/07	Brondby Europe Friendlies	0-2	0-4	0	4	L
04/07	Hillerød Europe Friendlies	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
29/06	Kolding IF Europe Friendlies	1-0	2-1	6	1	W
17/05	Vejle Denmark Superligaen	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
11/05	Randers FC Denmark Superligaen	1-0	2-2	3	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AGF Aarhus vs Odense BK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AGF Aarhus win (60%). Probabilities: AGF Aarhus 60%, draw 22%, Odense BK 18%.

How many goals are expected in AGF Aarhus vs Odense BK?

The model expects 3.16 goals (AGF Aarhus 2.09 · Odense BK 1.06), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in AGF Aarhus vs Odense BK?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.