Football · Denmark Superligaen · 30/08, 16:00

Prediction: Randers FC vs AGF Aarhus

Team pages: Randers FC · AGF Aarhus

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

Randers FC1.25

AGF Aarhus1.65

1X2

28% 26% 46%

Randers FC Draw AGF Aarhus

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Randers FC 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LDLLDLWDLL

AGF Aarhus 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DWDLDDWWWD

Head-to-head

Randers FC 3–2–1 AGF Aarhus (6 last)

Randers FC1-2AGF Aarhus
AGF Aarhus1-2Randers FC
AGF Aarhus1-3Randers FC
Randers FC3-1AGF Aarhus
Randers FC1-1AGF Aarhus
AGF Aarhus2-2Randers FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Randers FC 1452 · AGF Aarhus 1542

	Randers FC	Draw	AGF Aarhus
Our model	28%	27%	46%
Market	28%	26%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AGF Aarhus (rating 1452 vs 1542).
H2H favours Randers FC: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Randers FC	AGF Aarhus
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.1	1.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1.1	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.2	2.2 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.2	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.60

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.71
2	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.16 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:17 +5’	3.25	3.60	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:28 +1’	3.13	3.78	2.14
13:13 +1’	3.14▲	3.71▼	2.16▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Randers FC 3–2–1 AGF Aarhus

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/12/25 Denmark Superligaen	Randers FC	1-2 HT 1-2	AGF Aarhus
25/07/25 Denmark Superligaen	AGF Aarhus	1-2 HT 1-0	Randers FC
11/05/25 Denmark Superligaen	AGF Aarhus	1-3 HT 1-1	Randers FC
17/04/25 Denmark Superligaen	Randers FC	3-1 HT 1-0	AGF Aarhus
28/02/25 Denmark Superligaen	Randers FC	1-1 HT 1-1	AGF Aarhus
28/09/24 Denmark Superligaen	AGF Aarhus	2-2 HT 1-1	Randers FC

Standings · Denmark Superligaen

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Viborg	5	3	1	1	7	2	10
2	FC Nordsjaelland	4	3	1	0	6	1	10
3	Brondby	4	3	1	0	7	3	10
4	Midtjylland	4	3	1	0	7	4	10
5	FC Copenhagen	4	3	0	1	10	7	9
6	AC Horsens	5	2	1	2	6	7	7
7	Odense BK	5	1	1	3	4	6	4
8	Silkeborg IF	4	1	1	2	3	5	4
9	Randers FC	5	1	1	3	3	7	4
10	AGF Aarhus	4	0	3	1	6	7	3
11	Lyngby	5	0	2	3	6	10	2
12	Sonderjyske	5	0	1	4	4	10	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Randers FC	AGF Aarhus
Midtjylland	0-1 L	0-0 D
Odense BK	2-2 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: AGF Aarhus (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Randers FC

LDLLDLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Midtjylland Denmark Superligaen	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
17/05	FC Copenhagen Denmark Superligaen	0-3	0-5	5	1	L
11/05	Odense BK Denmark Superligaen	0-1	2-2	8	2	D
03/05	Vejle Denmark Superligaen	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
26/04	Silkeborg IF Denmark Superligaen	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
23/04	FC Fredericia Denmark Superligaen	1-2	2-2	6	3	D
19/04	Odense BK Denmark Superligaen	0-1	1-3	8	0	L
12/04	FC Copenhagen Denmark Superligaen	0-0	1-2	5	5	L
06/04	Vejle Denmark Superligaen	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
22/03	Silkeborg IF Denmark Superligaen	0-2	0-3	4	2	L

AGF Aarhus

DWDLDDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Odense BK Denmark Superligaen	1-2	2-2	15	6	D
17/05	Viborg Denmark Superligaen	3-1	6-2	3	4	W
10/05	Brondby Denmark Superligaen	2-0	2-0	4	6	W
03/05	Sonderjyske Denmark Superligaen	0-0	2-1	9	2	W
26/04	Midtjylland Denmark Superligaen	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
23/04	FC Nordsjaelland Denmark Superligaen	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
20/04	Midtjylland Denmark Superligaen	1-0	1-2	5	4	L
10/04	FC Nordsjaelland Denmark Superligaen	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
06/04	Viborg Denmark Superligaen	2-1	2-1	2	3	W
22/03	Brondby Denmark Superligaen	0-0	0-0	7	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Randers FC vs AGF Aarhus?

According to our model, the most likely result is an AGF Aarhus win (46%). Probabilities: Randers FC 28%, draw 26%, AGF Aarhus 46%.

How many goals are expected in Randers FC vs AGF Aarhus?

The model expects 2.9 goals (Randers FC 1.25 · AGF Aarhus 1.65), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Randers FC vs AGF Aarhus?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.