Football · Malawi Super League · 16/08, 14:30
Prediction: Karonga United vs Big Bullets
Team pages: Karonga United · Big Bullets
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Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.14Total
Karonga United0.75
Big Bullets1.39
1X2
Karonga United
Draw
Big Bullets
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 64%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
0-1
Recent form · 10 last
Karonga United
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Big Bullets
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Karonga United
0–2–4
Big Bullets
(6 last)
- Karonga United0-2Big Bullets
- Big Bullets3-3Karonga United
- Karonga United1-2Big Bullets
- Big Bullets3-1Karonga United
- Big Bullets4-1Karonga United
- Karonga United0-0Big Bullets
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Karonga United 1453 · Big Bullets 1548
| Karonga United | Draw | Big Bullets | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 19% | 30% | 51% |
| Market | 20% | 28% | 52% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.14 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Big Bullets (rating 1453 vs 1548).
- H2H favours Big Bullets: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Karonga United | Big Bullets | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.7 | 1.1 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.8 | 0.2 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.2 | 3.3 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.5 / 0.1 | 4.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Karonga United 0–2–4 Big Bullets
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/12/25 Malawi Super League | Karonga United | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Big Bullets |
| 10/08/25 Malawi Super League | Big Bullets | 3-3 HT 2-1 | Karonga United |
| 21/06/25 Malawi Top 8 Cup | Karonga United | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Big Bullets |
| 04/12/24 Malawi Super League | Big Bullets | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Karonga United |
| 16/11/22 Malawi Super League | Big Bullets | 4-1 HT 2-1 | Karonga United |
| 23/04/22 Malawi Super League | Karonga United | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Big Bullets |
Standings · Malawi Super League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Silver Strikers | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 5 | 28 |
| 2 | Big Bullets | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 23 |
| 3 | Mighty Wanderers | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 22 | 8 | 23 |
| 4 | Blue Eagles | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 12 | 22 |
| 5 | Masters FC | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 21 |
| 6 | Red Lions | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 19 |
| 7 | Chitipa United | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 19 |
| 8 | Mitundu Baptist FC | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 13 | 18 |
| 9 | Ekhaya FC | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 11 | 17 |
| 10 | Moyale Barracks | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 14 | 17 |
| 11 | MAFCO | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 13 |
| 12 | Dedza Dynamos | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 12 |
| 13 | Karonga United | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 21 | 12 |
| 14 | Kamuzu Barracks | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 17 | 11 |
| 15 | Civil Service Utd | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 11 |
| 16 | Creck SC | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 17 | 5 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Karonga United | Big Bullets |
|---|---|---|
| Ekhaya FC | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Creck SC | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Dedza Dynamos | 1-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Moyale Barracks | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Big Bullets (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Karonga United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Mitundu Baptist FC Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 01/08 | Ekhaya FC Malawi Top 8 Cup |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 26/07 | Creck SC Malawi Super League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 19/07 | Silver Strikers Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 12/07 | Silver Strikers Malawi Top 8 Cup |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 04/07 | Dedza Dynamos Malawi Super League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 28/06 | Moyale Barracks Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 21/06 | Blue Eagles Malawi Super League |
2-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | Silver Strikers Malawi Top 8 Cup |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 31/05 | Red Lions Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
Big Bullets
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Chitipa United Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 25/07 | Dedza Dynamos Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 19/07 | Ekhaya FC Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 12/07 | Ekhaya FC Malawi Top 8 Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 11/07 | Ekhaya FC Malawi Top 8 Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 04/07 | Creck SC Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 29/06 | Masters FC Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 21/06 | Kamuzu Barracks Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 12 | 1 | W |
| 13/06 | Ekhaya FC Malawi Top 8 Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 31/05 | Moyale Barracks Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Karonga United vs Big Bullets?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Big Bullets win (52%). Probabilities: Karonga United 20%, draw 29%, Big Bullets 52%.
How many goals are expected in Karonga United vs Big Bullets?
The model expects 2.14 goals (Karonga United 0.75 · Big Bullets 1.39), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Karonga United vs Big Bullets?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.