Football · Malawi Super League · 16/08, 14:30
Prediction: Kamuzu Barracks vs Mighty Wanderers
Team pages: Kamuzu Barracks · Mighty Wanderers
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Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.58Total
Kamuzu Barracks0.88
Mighty Wanderers1.7
1X2
Kamuzu Barracks
Draw
Mighty Wanderers
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Kamuzu Barracks
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Mighty Wanderers
5-5-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Kamuzu Barracks
1–3–2
Mighty Wanderers
(6 last)
- Mighty Wanderers2-2Kamuzu Barracks
- Kamuzu Barracks0-3Mighty Wanderers
- Kamuzu Barracks0-1Mighty Wanderers
- Mighty Wanderers1-1Kamuzu Barracks
- Mighty Wanderers1-1Kamuzu Barracks
- Kamuzu Barracks1-0Mighty Wanderers
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kamuzu Barracks 1482 · Mighty Wanderers 1561
| Kamuzu Barracks | Draw | Mighty Wanderers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 18% | 26% | 56% |
| Market | 18% | 26% | 56% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mighty Wanderers (rating 1482 vs 1561).
- H2H favours Mighty Wanderers: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Kamuzu Barracks | Mighty Wanderers | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.4 | 2 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 3.5 | 3.8 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.3 | 2.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Kamuzu Barracks 1–3–2 Mighty Wanderers
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/12/25 Malawi Super League | Mighty Wanderers | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Kamuzu Barracks |
| 15/06/25 Malawi Super League | Kamuzu Barracks | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Mighty Wanderers |
| 29/08/24 Malawi Super League | Kamuzu Barracks | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Mighty Wanderers |
| 07/04/24 Malawi Super League | Mighty Wanderers | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Kamuzu Barracks |
| 13/09/23 Malawi Super League | Mighty Wanderers | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Kamuzu Barracks |
| 29/07/23 Malawi Super League | Kamuzu Barracks | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Mighty Wanderers |
Standings · Malawi Super League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Silver Strikers | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 5 | 28 |
| 2 | Big Bullets | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 23 |
| 3 | Mighty Wanderers | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 22 | 8 | 23 |
| 4 | Blue Eagles | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 12 | 22 |
| 5 | Masters FC | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 21 |
| 6 | Red Lions | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 19 |
| 7 | Chitipa United | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 19 |
| 8 | Mitundu Baptist FC | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 13 | 18 |
| 9 | Ekhaya FC | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 11 | 17 |
| 10 | Moyale Barracks | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 14 | 17 |
| 11 | MAFCO | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 13 |
| 12 | Dedza Dynamos | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 12 |
| 13 | Karonga United | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 21 | 12 |
| 14 | Kamuzu Barracks | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 17 | 11 |
| 15 | Civil Service Utd | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 11 |
| 16 | Creck SC | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 17 | 5 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Kamuzu Barracks | Mighty Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| MAFCO | 4-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Blue Eagles | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Masters FC | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Chitipa United | 1-2 L | 4-0 W |
| Dedza Dynamos | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Ekhaya FC | 1-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Creck SC | 3-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Karonga United | 1-1 D | 4-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 4 L | 4 W 4 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Mighty Wanderers (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kamuzu Barracks
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Red Lions Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 26/07 | MAFCO Malawi Super League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 19/07 | Blue Eagles Malawi Super League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 05/07 | Masters FC Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 27/06 | Chitipa United Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 21/06 | Big Bullets Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 31/05 | Dedza Dynamos Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Ekhaya FC Malawi Super League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Creck SC Malawi Super League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Karonga United Malawi Super League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
Mighty Wanderers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Moyale Barracks Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 02/08 | Blue Eagles Malawi Top 8 Cup |
1-1 | 1-1 | 12 | 2 | D |
| 26/07 | Masters FC Malawi Super League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 12 | 1 | D |
| 18/07 | Civil Service Utd Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 05/07 | MAFCO Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 28/06 | Dedza Dynamos Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 20/06 | Ekhaya FC Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 14/06 | Creck SC Malawi Top 8 Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 31/05 | Chitipa United Malawi Super League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 27/05 | Karonga United Malawi Super League |
3-1 | 4-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kamuzu Barracks vs Mighty Wanderers?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Mighty Wanderers win (56%). Probabilities: Kamuzu Barracks 18%, draw 26%, Mighty Wanderers 56%.
How many goals are expected in Kamuzu Barracks vs Mighty Wanderers?
The model expects 2.58 goals (Kamuzu Barracks 0.88 · Mighty Wanderers 1.7), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Kamuzu Barracks vs Mighty Wanderers?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.