Football · Colombia Primera B · 25/08, 00:00
Prediction: Itagui Leones vs Real Cartagena
Team pages: Itagui Leones · Real Cartagena
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.39Total
Itagui Leones0.99
Real Cartagena1.41
1X2
Itagui Leones
Draw
Real Cartagena
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Itagui Leones
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Real Cartagena
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Itagui Leones
1–2–3
Real Cartagena
(6 last)
- Real Cartagena2-3Itagui Leones
- Real Cartagena4-0Itagui Leones
- Itagui Leones1-2Real Cartagena
- Real Cartagena1-0Itagui Leones
- Itagui Leones0-0Real Cartagena
- Real Cartagena1-1Itagui Leones
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Itagui Leones 1508 · Real Cartagena 1480
| Itagui Leones | Draw | Real Cartagena | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 29% | 45% |
| Market | 25% | 29% | 46% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Real Cartagena: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Itagui Leones | Real Cartagena | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1 | 1.7 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/20/60% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.5 | 2 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.5 | 5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Itagui Leones 1–2–3 Real Cartagena
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/26 Colombia Primera B | Real Cartagena | 2-3 HT 0-2 | Itagui Leones |
| 19/08/25 Colombia Primera B | Real Cartagena | 4-0 HT 3-0 | Itagui Leones |
| 18/02/25 Colombia Primera B | Itagui Leones | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Real Cartagena |
| 23/09/24 Colombia Primera B | Real Cartagena | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Itagui Leones |
| 20/04/24 Colombia Primera B | Itagui Leones | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Real Cartagena |
| 12/11/23 Colombia Primera B | Real Cartagena | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Itagui Leones |
Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Itagui Leones | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 8 |
| 2 | Real Cartagena | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Independiente Yumbo | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Patriotas FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 5 |
| 5 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| 6 | Orsomarso | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | Envigado FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 8 | Tigres FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Boca Juniors De Cali | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | Bogota FC | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | Real San Andres | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 3 |
| 12 | Barranquilla FC | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| 13 | Deportes Quindio | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 14 | Atletico Cali FC | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| 15 | Internacional FC de Palmira | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 16 | Union Magdalena | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Itagui Leones | Real Cartagena |
|---|---|---|
| Real Soacha Cundinamarca | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Bogota FC | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Real San Andres | 1-0 W | 5-1 W |
| Barranquilla FC | 0-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 3 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Real Cartagena (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Itagui Leones
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 1 | D |
| 06/08 | Bogota FC Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 04/08 | Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 25/07 | Tigres FC Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 18/04 | Orsomarso Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 13/04 | Real San Andres Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 01/04 | Patriotas FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 25/03 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 8 | L |
| 21/03 | Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 13 | L |
| 14/03 | Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 7 | L |
Real Cartagena
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08 | Bogota FC Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 10 | W |
| 07/08 | Independiente Yumbo Colombia Primera B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 26/07 | Real San Andres Colombia Primera B |
3-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | Envigado FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 26/05 | Envigado FC Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 22/05 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 18/05 | Bogota FC Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 12/05 | Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 09/05 | Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Itagui Leones vs Real Cartagena?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Real Cartagena win (46%). Probabilities: Itagui Leones 25%, draw 29%, Real Cartagena 46%.
How many goals are expected in Itagui Leones vs Real Cartagena?
The model expects 2.39 goals (Itagui Leones 0.99 · Real Cartagena 1.41), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Itagui Leones vs Real Cartagena?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.