Football · Venezuela Segunda Division · 15/08, 21:30

Prediction: Zamora II vs Atletico El Vigia

Team pages: Zamora II · Atletico El Vigia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Zamora II1.95

Atletico El Vigia1.08

1X2

57% 23% 20%

Zamora II Draw Atletico El Vigia

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Zamora II 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDDWLWWLDW

Atletico El Vigia 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDLLLLDWWD

Head-to-head

Zamora II 0–2–0 Atletico El Vigia (2 last)

Atletico El Vigia1-1Zamora II
Zamora II0-0Atletico El Vigia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zamora II 1540 · Atletico El Vigia 1468

	Zamora II	Draw	Atletico El Vigia
Our model	57%	24%	20%
Market	57%	23%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Zamora II (rating 1540 vs 1468).
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zamora II	Atletico El Vigia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.6	0.9 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.3	2.3 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.6	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.90

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 17:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.40▼	Bet365 1.40
X	4.00 → 4.50▲	Bet365 4.50
2	5.00 → 5.50▲	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
22:17 +4’	1.50	4.00	5.00
08:43 +3’	1.57▲	3.90▼	4.50▼
17:20 +6’	1.40▼	4.50▲	5.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Zamora II 0–2–0 Atletico El Vigia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Atletico El Vigia	1-1 HT 0-0	Zamora II
21/03/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Zamora II	0-0 HT 0-0	Atletico El Vigia

Standings · Venezuela Segunda Division · Segunda Division 2026, Central-West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Urena SC	20	10	8	2	33	19	38
2	CD Lara	19	10	6	3	31	19	36
3	Barquisimeto	19	10	6	3	29	17	36
4	Yaracuyanos	20	8	6	6	25	20	30
5	Zamora II	19	7	7	5	31	27	28
6	Academia Puerto Cabello II	21	7	5	9	27	26	26
7	Atletico Barinas	20	7	2	11	40	45	23
8	Atletico El Vigia	20	3	6	11	17	37	15
9	Real Frontera	20	3	2	15	19	42	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zamora II	Atletico El Vigia
Atletico Barinas	3-2 W	1-7 L
Urena SC	2-2 D	1-2 L
Barquisimeto	1-2 L	0-5 L
Academia Puerto Cabello II	2-1 W	0-0 D
Real Frontera	2-0 W	3-1 W
CD Lara	1-4 L	2-1 W
Yaracuyanos	3-2 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Zamora II (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Zamora II

WDDWLWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	3-1	3-2	4	4	W
03/08	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	2-1	2-2	9	9	D
29/07	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	1-2	4	9	L
05/06	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-1	2	8	W
30/05	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-0	9	1	W
24/05	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	1-4	5	4	L
20/05	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	3-2	3	9	W
16/05	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
09/05	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	1-2	2-2	2	6	D
03/05	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-0	3	4	W

Atletico El Vigia

LDLLLLDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
02/08	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	3-1	7	8	W
29/07	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
25/07	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
24/06	Zamora Venezuela Cup	1-4	1-6	5	5	L
31/05	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-2	1-7	3	2	L
24/05	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
20/05	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-5	2	6	L
16/05	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-1	6	2	D
10/05	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-1	7	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zamora II vs Atletico El Vigia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Zamora II win (57%). Probabilities: Zamora II 57%, draw 23%, Atletico El Vigia 20%.

How many goals are expected in Zamora II vs Atletico El Vigia?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Zamora II 1.95 · Atletico El Vigia 1.08), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Zamora II vs Atletico El Vigia?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.