Football · Venezuela Segunda Division · 15/08, 22:30

Prediction: Barquisimeto vs Atletico Barinas

Team pages: Barquisimeto · Atletico Barinas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

Barquisimeto2.27

Atletico Barinas1.02

1X2

64% 21% 15%

Barquisimeto Draw Atletico Barinas

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Barquisimeto 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLLWLDWD

Atletico Barinas 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DWLWWWLWLL

Head-to-head

Barquisimeto 1–1 Atletico Barinas (2 last)

Atletico Barinas2-1Barquisimeto
Barquisimeto2-1Atletico Barinas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Barquisimeto 1497 · Atletico Barinas 1498

	Barquisimeto	Draw	Atletico Barinas
Our model	65%	21%	15%
Market	64%	21%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Barquisimeto	Atletico Barinas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	2.3 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	1.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.7	2.4 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.6 / 0.6	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.20

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.85

2 (+1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
22:15 +9’	1.40	4.20	6.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Barquisimeto 1–0–1 Atletico Barinas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Atletico Barinas	2-1 HT 1-0	Barquisimeto
21/03/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Barquisimeto	2-1 HT 0-1	Atletico Barinas

Standings · Venezuela Segunda Division · Segunda Division 2026, Central-West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Urena SC	20	10	8	2	33	19	38
2	CD Lara	19	10	6	3	31	19	36
3	Barquisimeto	19	10	6	3	29	17	36
4	Yaracuyanos	20	8	6	6	25	20	30
5	Zamora II	19	7	7	5	31	27	28
6	Academia Puerto Cabello II	21	7	5	9	27	26	26
7	Atletico Barinas	20	7	2	11	40	45	23
8	Atletico El Vigia	20	3	6	11	17	37	15
9	Real Frontera	20	3	2	15	19	42	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Barquisimeto	Atletico Barinas
Urena SC	1-1 D	0-1 L
Zamora II	2-1 W	2-3 L
Academia Puerto Cabello II	2-2 D	3-5 L
Yaracuyanos	0-4 L	2-1 W
Real Frontera	2-1 W	3-1 W
CD Lara	0-1 L	1-4 L
Atletico El Vigia	5-0 W	7-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Barquisimeto (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Barquisimeto

DLWLLWLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-1	2	8	D
29/07	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-1	1	9	W
25/07	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	2-2	2	9	D
24/06	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Cup	0-3	0-4	5	6	L
06/06	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-1	10	7	W
30/05	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-1	5	9	L
24/05	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	9	7	L
20/05	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	5-0	3	6	W
16/05	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	1-2	6	7	L
09/05	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	4	4	D

Atletico Barinas

DWLWWWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-3	2-3	6	4	L
02/08	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	2-3	3-5	4	6	L
29/07	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
25/07	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-4	2	5	L
24/06	Real Frontera Venezuela Cup	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
06/06	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	2-1	3	3	W
31/05	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	7-1	7	2	W
20/05	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
16/05	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-1	4	7	W
09/05	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	2-1	2-2	6	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Barquisimeto vs Atletico Barinas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Barquisimeto win (64%). Probabilities: Barquisimeto 64%, draw 21%, Atletico Barinas 15%.

How many goals are expected in Barquisimeto vs Atletico Barinas?

The model expects 3.29 goals (Barquisimeto 2.27 · Atletico Barinas 1.02), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Barquisimeto vs Atletico Barinas?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.