Football · Spain Tercera Group 3 · 08/11, 17:00

Prediction: Vimenor vs Castro

Team pages: Vimenor · Castro

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

Vimenor1.79

Castro0.95

1X2

56% 25% 19%

Vimenor Draw Castro

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Vimenor 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWDLLWWD

Castro 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDWDLLLWLL

Head-to-head

Vimenor 3–2–1 Castro (6 last)

Vimenor3-1Castro
Castro2-2Vimenor
Vimenor2-1Castro
Castro1-1Vimenor
Castro2-0Vimenor
Vimenor1-0Castro

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vimenor 1530 · Castro 1433

	Vimenor	Draw	Castro
Our model	56%	25%	19%
Market	56%	25%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vimenor (rating 1530 vs 1433).
H2H favours Vimenor: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vimenor	Castro
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1	1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/33/33%	14/29/57%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.3	1.7 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 1	4.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.60

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.02

2 (+1)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.60▲	Bet365 1.60
X	3.75 → 3.60▼	Pinn 3.73
2	5.00 → 4.75▼	Pinn 5.08 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
17:37 +6’	1.53	3.75	5.00
22:45 +13’	1.60▲	3.60▼	4.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:13 +26’	1.58	3.73	5.08

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vimenor 3–2–1 Castro

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/01/26 Spain Tercera Group 3	Vimenor	3-1 HT 3-0	Castro
07/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 3	Castro	2-2 HT 2-1	Vimenor
01/02/25 Spain Tercera Group 3	Vimenor	2-1 HT 0-0	Castro
22/09/24 Spain Tercera Group 3	Castro	1-1 HT 1-1	Vimenor
04/02/24 Spain Tercera Group 3	Castro	2-0 HT 1-0	Vimenor
17/09/23 Spain Tercera Group 3	Vimenor	1-0 HT 1-0	Castro

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tropezon	9	7	2	0	19	5	23
2	SD Revilla	10	6	3	1	23	12	21
3	CD Cayon	9	6	2	1	11	2	20
4	CD Bezana	9	6	2	1	17	8	20
5	UD Samano	10	5	4	1	23	9	19
6	Laredo	10	6	1	3	20	9	19
7	Vimenor	9	5	2	2	13	7	17
8	SD Torina	9	3	6	0	11	4	15
9	CD Atletico Mineros	10	4	1	5	14	20	13
10	Solares	9	2	3	4	8	13	9
11	CD Barquereno	9	2	2	5	7	16	8
12	CD Guarnizo	10	2	2	6	10	18	8
13	Castro	9	2	2	5	10	13	8
14	Escobedo	10	1	4	5	8	17	7
15	Selaya	10	2	1	7	6	18	7
16	At. Albericia	9	1	4	4	11	15	7
17	Velarde	10	1	3	6	7	19	6
18	Naval	9	1	2	6	10	23	5

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vimenor	Castro
SD Revilla	1-1 D	2-2 D
Solares	3-0 W	2-0 W
Selaya	2-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Vimenor (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vimenor

LWWWDLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	SD Revilla Spain Tercera Group 3	1-1	1-1	2	9	D
25/10	Solares Spain Tercera Group 3	1-0	3-0	6	5	W
18/10	Selaya Spain Tercera Group 3	–	2-1	–	–	W
10/10	Laredo Spain Tercera Group 3	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
03/10	CD Bezana Spain Tercera Group 3	–	0-1	–	–	L
27/09	SD Torina Spain Tercera Group 3	–	0-0	–	–	D
19/09	Velarde Spain Tercera Group 3	–	4-1	–	–	W
13/09	UD Samano Spain Tercera Group 3	–	2-1	–	–	W
05/09	CD Cayon Spain Tercera Group 3	–	1-0	–	–	W
09/05	CD Cayon Spain Tercera Group 3	–	1-3	–	–	L

Castro

LDWDLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	CD Barquereno Spain Tercera Group 3	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
25/10	Naval Spain Tercera Group 3	–	1-2	–	–	L
17/10	Escobedo Spain Tercera Group 3	–	3-0	–	–	W
10/10	At. Albericia Spain Tercera Group 3	0-1	2-4	2	4	L
04/10	Tropezon Spain Tercera Group 3	0-1	0-2	1	5	L
27/09	CD Atletico Mineros Spain Tercera Group 3	0-2	0-2	5	7	L
19/09	SD Revilla Spain Tercera Group 3	2-0	2-2	3	7	D
13/09	Solares Spain Tercera Group 3	–	2-0	–	–	W
06/09	Selaya Spain Tercera Group 3	0-0	0-0	9	7	D
09/05	Tropezon Spain Tercera Group 3	0-1	0-2	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vimenor vs Castro?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vimenor win (56%). Probabilities: Vimenor 56%, draw 25%, Castro 19%.

How many goals are expected in Vimenor vs Castro?

The model expects 2.75 goals (Vimenor 1.79 · Castro 0.95), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Vimenor vs Castro?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.