Football · Spain Tercera Group 3 · 15/11, 17:00

Prediction: Castro vs CD Guarnizo

Team pages: Castro · CD Guarnizo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

Castro1.27

CD Guarnizo1.14

1X2

38% 30% 32%

Castro Draw CD Guarnizo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Castro 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DWDLLLWLLL

CD Guarnizo 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWDDLWLL

Head-to-head

Castro 3–1–2 CD Guarnizo (6 last)

Castro0-1CD Guarnizo
CD Guarnizo2-0Castro
Castro3-2CD Guarnizo
CD Guarnizo0-2Castro
CD Guarnizo0-0Castro
Castro3-2CD Guarnizo

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Castro: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Castro	CD Guarnizo
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.6	1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	14/29/57%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.9	2.2 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.7	6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.78

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:07

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.17 → 2.17	Pinn 2.17
X	3.09 → 3.09	Pinn 3.09
2	3.17 → 3.17	Pinn 3.17

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 10%

Time*	1	X	2
07:06 +2’	2.17	3.09	3.17

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Castro 3–1–2 CD Guarnizo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 3	Castro	0-1	CD Guarnizo
06/12/25 Spain Tercera Group 3	CD Guarnizo	2-0 HT 0-0	Castro
09/02/25 Spain Tercera Group 3	Castro	3-2	CD Guarnizo
29/09/24 Spain Tercera Group 3	CD Guarnizo	0-2 HT 0-1	Castro
09/03/24 Spain Tercera Group 3	CD Guarnizo	0-0 HT 0-0	Castro
22/10/23 Spain Tercera Group 3	Castro	3-2	CD Guarnizo

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tropezon	10	8	2	0	22	6	26
2	CD Cayon	10	7	2	1	12	2	23
3	UD Samano	11	6	4	1	25	9	22
4	Laredo	11	7	1	3	21	9	22
5	SD Revilla	10	6	3	1	23	12	21
6	CD Bezana	11	6	3	2	20	12	21
7	Vimenor	10	6	2	2	16	7	20
8	SD Torina	11	3	7	1	13	7	16
9	CD Atletico Mineros	11	5	1	5	16	21	16
10	Solares	11	2	3	6	8	16	9
11	Naval	11	2	3	6	12	24	9
12	CD Barquereno	10	2	2	6	8	19	8
13	Selaya	11	2	2	7	6	18	8
14	At. Albericia	10	1	5	4	12	16	8
15	CD Guarnizo	10	2	2	6	10	18	8
16	Castro	10	2	2	6	10	16	8
17	Escobedo	11	1	4	6	8	18	7
18	Velarde	11	1	4	6	7	19	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Castro	CD Guarnizo
CD Atletico Mineros	0-2 L	1-2 L
SD Revilla	2-2 D	0-3 L
Solares	2-0 W	0-1 L
Selaya	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Castro

DWDLLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Vimenor Spain Tercera Group 3	0-2	0-3	3	9	L
31/10	CD Barquereno Spain Tercera Group 3	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
25/10	Naval Spain Tercera Group 3	–	1-2	–	–	L
17/10	Escobedo Spain Tercera Group 3	–	3-0	–	–	W
10/10	At. Albericia Spain Tercera Group 3	0-1	2-4	2	4	L
04/10	Tropezon Spain Tercera Group 3	0-1	0-2	1	5	L
27/09	CD Atletico Mineros Spain Tercera Group 3	0-2	0-2	5	7	L
19/09	SD Revilla Spain Tercera Group 3	2-0	2-2	3	7	D
13/09	Solares Spain Tercera Group 3	–	2-0	–	–	W
06/09	Selaya Spain Tercera Group 3	0-0	0-0	9	7	D

CD Guarnizo

LLLWDDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	SD Revilla Spain Tercera Group 3	–	0-3	–	–	L
31/10	Solares Spain Tercera Group 3	0-1	0-1	11	4	L
25/10	Selaya Spain Tercera Group 3	0-0	1-0	4	12	W
17/10	Laredo Spain Tercera Group 3	2-1	2-4	2	7	L
10/10	CD Bezana Spain Tercera Group 3	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
03/10	SD Torina Spain Tercera Group 3	–	1-1	–	–	D
26/09	Velarde Spain Tercera Group 3	–	3-1	–	–	W
20/09	UD Samano Spain Tercera Group 3	0-1	1-4	5	3	L
12/09	CD Cayon Spain Tercera Group 3	–	0-1	–	–	L
06/09	CD Atletico Mineros Spain Tercera Group 3	–	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Castro vs CD Guarnizo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Castro win (38%). Probabilities: Castro 38%, draw 30%, CD Guarnizo 32%.

How many goals are expected in Castro vs CD Guarnizo?

The model expects 2.41 goals (Castro 1.27 · CD Guarnizo 1.14), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Castro vs CD Guarnizo?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.