Football · Spain Tercera Group 3 · 15/11, 17:00

Prediction: Tropezon vs Vimenor

Team pages: Tropezon · Vimenor

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.69Total

Tropezon1.69

Vimenor1

1X2

53% 26% 21%

Tropezon Draw Vimenor

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Tropezon 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

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Vimenor 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDLLWWDW

Head-to-head

Tropezon 6–0 Vimenor (6 last)

Vimenor1-3Tropezon
Tropezon5-0Vimenor
Tropezon1-0Vimenor
Vimenor0-1Tropezon
Tropezon2-0Vimenor
Vimenor1-2Tropezon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tropezon 1616 · Vimenor 1524

	Tropezon	Draw	Vimenor
Our model	53%	26%	21%
Market	53%	26%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tropezon (rating 1616 vs 1524).
H2H favours Tropezon: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tropezon	Vimenor
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 0.6	1.6 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/33/17%	50/25/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.2	2.3 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	5 / 1.3

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.50

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.76 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
17:12 +9’	1.70	3.50	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:11 +13’	1.67	3.46	4.76

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tropezon 6–0–0 Vimenor

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 3	Vimenor	1-3	Tropezon
07/12/25 Spain Tercera Group 3	Tropezon	5-0 HT 3-0	Vimenor
16/04/25 Spain Tercera Group 3	Tropezon	1-0 HT 0-0	Vimenor
07/12/24 Spain Tercera Group 3	Vimenor	0-1	Tropezon
21/04/24 Spain Tercera Group 3	Tropezon	2-0	Vimenor
02/12/23 Spain Tercera Group 3	Vimenor	1-2 HT 0-1	Tropezon

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tropezon	10	8	2	0	22	6	26
2	CD Cayon	10	7	2	1	12	2	23
3	SD Revilla	10	6	3	1	23	12	21
4	CD Bezana	10	6	3	1	19	10	21
5	Vimenor	10	6	2	2	16	7	20
6	UD Samano	10	5	4	1	23	9	19
7	Laredo	10	6	1	3	20	9	19
8	SD Torina	10	3	7	0	13	6	16
9	CD Atletico Mineros	10	4	1	5	14	20	13
10	Solares	10	2	3	5	8	14	9
11	At. Albericia	10	1	5	4	12	16	8
12	CD Barquereno	10	2	2	6	8	19	8
13	CD Guarnizo	10	2	2	6	10	18	8
14	Castro	10	2	2	6	10	16	8
15	Escobedo	10	1	4	5	8	17	7
16	Selaya	10	2	1	7	6	18	7
17	Velarde	10	1	3	6	7	19	6
18	Naval	10	1	3	6	11	24	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tropezon	Vimenor
Castro	2-0 W	3-0 W
SD Revilla	2-0 W	1-1 D
Solares	2-1 W	3-0 W
Selaya	3-0 W	2-1 W
Laredo	2-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Tropezon (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tropezon

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	CD Barquereno Spain Tercera Group 3	–	3-1	–	–	W
31/10	Naval Spain Tercera Group 3	–	4-0	–	–	W
25/10	Escobedo Spain Tercera Group 3	0-1	2-2	11	5	D
18/10	At. Albericia Spain Tercera Group 3	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
10/10	CD Atletico Mineros Spain Tercera Group 3	–	2-1	–	–	W
04/10	Castro Spain Tercera Group 3	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
27/09	SD Revilla Spain Tercera Group 3	0-0	2-0	5	1	W
19/09	Solares Spain Tercera Group 3	–	2-1	–	–	W
12/09	Selaya Spain Tercera Group 3	1-0	3-0	3	1	W
06/09	Laredo Spain Tercera Group 3	1-0	2-1	0	5	W

Vimenor

WWWDLLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Castro Spain Tercera Group 3	2-0	3-0	2	9	W
30/10	SD Revilla Spain Tercera Group 3	1-1	1-1	2	9	D
25/10	Solares Spain Tercera Group 3	1-0	3-0	6	5	W
18/10	Selaya Spain Tercera Group 3	–	2-1	–	–	W
10/10	Laredo Spain Tercera Group 3	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
03/10	CD Bezana Spain Tercera Group 3	–	0-1	–	–	L
27/09	SD Torina Spain Tercera Group 3	–	0-0	–	–	D
19/09	Velarde Spain Tercera Group 3	–	4-1	–	–	W
13/09	UD Samano Spain Tercera Group 3	–	2-1	–	–	W
05/09	CD Cayon Spain Tercera Group 3	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tropezon vs Vimenor?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tropezon win (53%). Probabilities: Tropezon 53%, draw 26%, Vimenor 21%.

How many goals are expected in Tropezon vs Vimenor?

The model expects 2.69 goals (Tropezon 1.69 · Vimenor 1), with a 56% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Tropezon vs Vimenor?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.