Football · Spain Tercera Group 3 · 14/11, 19:00

Prediction: At. Albericia vs CD Barquereno

Team pages: At. Albericia · CD Barquereno

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

At. Albericia2.1

CD Barquereno1

1X2

62% 22% 16%

At. Albericia Draw CD Barquereno

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

At. Albericia 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

LLLLDWDDDD

CD Barquereno 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLLWDLWL

Head-to-head

At. Albericia 5–1 CD Barquereno (6 last)

CD Barquereno2-4At. Albericia
At. Albericia1-0CD Barquereno
At. Albericia4-2CD Barquereno
CD Barquereno1-2At. Albericia
CD Barquereno1-3At. Albericia
At. Albericia1-2CD Barquereno

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · At. Albericia 1478 · CD Barquereno 1440

	At. Albericia	Draw	CD Barquereno
Our model	62%	22%	16%
Market	62%	22%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.09 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours At. Albericia: 5-0-1.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	At. Albericia	CD Barquereno
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.6	0.8 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	17/50/33%	0/67/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 7	1.7 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.3	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.45

X4.10

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.00

2 (+1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 11:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.45▼	Pinn 1.47
X	3.80 → 4.10▲	Pinn 4.34 ★
2	4.75 → 5.50▲	Pinn 5.81

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:10 +3’	1.57	3.80	4.75
03:40 +30’	1.44▼	4.20▲	5.75▲
11:02 +13’	1.45▲	4.10▼	5.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:11 +14’	1.47	4.17	5.62
02:12	1.46▼	4.25▲	5.65▲
17:25 +6’	1.47▲	4.34▲	5.81▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · At. Albericia 5–0–1 CD Barquereno

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 3	CD Barquereno	2-4	At. Albericia
02/11/25 Spain Tercera Group 3	At. Albericia	1-0 HT 0-0	CD Barquereno
10/05/25 Spain Tercera Group 3	At. Albericia	4-2	CD Barquereno
12/01/25 Spain Tercera Group 3	CD Barquereno	1-2	At. Albericia
14/03/21 Spain Tercera Group 3	CD Barquereno	1-3	At. Albericia
12/12/20 Spain Tercera Group 3	At. Albericia	1-2	CD Barquereno

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tropezon	10	8	2	0	22	6	26
2	CD Cayon	10	7	2	1	12	2	23
3	SD Revilla	10	6	3	1	23	12	21
4	CD Bezana	10	6	3	1	19	10	21
5	Vimenor	10	6	2	2	16	7	20
6	UD Samano	10	5	4	1	23	9	19
7	Laredo	10	6	1	3	20	9	19
8	SD Torina	10	3	7	0	13	6	16
9	CD Atletico Mineros	10	4	1	5	14	20	13
10	Solares	10	2	3	5	8	14	9
11	At. Albericia	10	1	5	4	12	16	8
12	CD Barquereno	10	2	2	6	8	19	8
13	CD Guarnizo	10	2	2	6	10	18	8
14	Castro	10	2	2	6	10	16	8
15	Escobedo	10	1	4	5	8	17	7
16	Selaya	10	2	1	7	6	18	7
17	Velarde	10	1	3	6	7	19	6
18	Naval	10	1	3	6	11	24	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	At. Albericia	CD Barquereno
Tropezon	0-0 D	1-3 L
Castro	4-2 W	1-0 W
SD Revilla	2-2 D	1-3 L
Solares	0-2 L	2-2 D
Selaya	0-1 L	1-0 W
Laredo	0-2 L	0-3 L
CD Bezana	1-2 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: At. Albericia (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

At. Albericia

LLLLDWDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Naval Spain Tercera Group 3	–	1-1	–	–	D
31/10	Escobedo Spain Tercera Group 3	1-1	1-1	7	7	D
24/10	CD Atletico Mineros Spain Tercera Group 3	0-2	3-3	9	8	D
18/10	Tropezon Spain Tercera Group 3	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
10/10	Castro Spain Tercera Group 3	1-0	4-2	6	4	W
03/10	SD Revilla Spain Tercera Group 3	–	2-2	–	–	D
27/09	Solares Spain Tercera Group 3	0-0	0-2	8	5	L
20/09	Selaya Spain Tercera Group 3	0-1	0-1	9	9	L
12/09	Laredo Spain Tercera Group 3	–	0-2	–	–	L
05/09	CD Bezana Spain Tercera Group 3	–	1-2	–	–	L

CD Barquereno

DLLLLWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Tropezon Spain Tercera Group 3	–	1-3	–	–	L
31/10	Castro Spain Tercera Group 3	0-0	1-0	1	3	W
25/10	SD Revilla Spain Tercera Group 3	–	1-3	–	–	L
18/10	Solares Spain Tercera Group 3	1-1	2-2	3	6	D
11/10	Selaya Spain Tercera Group 3	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/10	Laredo Spain Tercera Group 3	–	0-3	–	–	L
27/09	CD Bezana Spain Tercera Group 3	–	0-2	–	–	L
20/09	SD Torina Spain Tercera Group 3	–	0-3	–	–	L
13/09	Velarde Spain Tercera Group 3	–	0-1	–	–	L
05/09	UD Samano Spain Tercera Group 3	0-1	2-2	7	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in At. Albericia vs CD Barquereno?

According to our model, the most likely result is a At. Albericia win (62%). Probabilities: At. Albericia 62%, draw 22%, CD Barquereno 16%.

How many goals are expected in At. Albericia vs CD Barquereno?

The model expects 3.09 goals (At. Albericia 2.1 · CD Barquereno 1), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in At. Albericia vs CD Barquereno?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.