Football · Italy Campionato Primavera 2 · 05/09, 12:00
Prediction: Ascoli U19 vs Spezia U19
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.42Total
Ascoli U191.88
Spezia U191.54
1X2
Ascoli U19
Draw
Spezia U19
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Ascoli U19
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Spezia U19
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ascoli U19
2–4
Spezia U19
(6 last)
- Spezia U194-0Ascoli U19
- Ascoli U192-3Spezia U19
- Spezia U190-2Ascoli U19
- Ascoli U192-5Spezia U19
- Ascoli U191-0Spezia U19
- Spezia U194-0Ascoli U19
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ascoli U19 1434 · Spezia U19 1520
| Ascoli U19 | Draw | Spezia U19 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 24% | 31% |
| Market | 45% | 24% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Spezia U19 (rating 1434 vs 1520).
- H2H favours Spezia U19: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ascoli U19 | Spezia U19 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 2.2 | 1.6 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.8 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 44/22/33% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.3 | 2.2 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0 | 4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ascoli U19 2–0–4 Spezia U19
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/26 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 | Spezia U19 | 4-0 HT 3-0 | Ascoli U19 |
| 20/09/25 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 | Ascoli U19 | 2-3 HT 1-0 | Spezia U19 |
| 27/04/25 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 | Spezia U19 | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Ascoli U19 |
| 28/09/24 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 | Ascoli U19 | 2-5 HT 1-3 | Spezia U19 |
| 11/05/24 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 | Ascoli U19 | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Spezia U19 |
| 21/12/23 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 | Spezia U19 | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Ascoli U19 |
Standings · Italy Campionato Primavera 2 · Primavera 2 26/27, Girone B
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ascoli U19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Benevento U19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cosenza U19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Frosinone U19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Latina U19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Palermo U19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Perugia U19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Pescara U19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Pisa U19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Spezia U19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Monopoli U19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bari U19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Napoli U19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Avellino U19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Catanzaro U19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Salernitana U19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ascoli U19 | Spezia U19 |
|---|---|---|
| Empoli U19 | 1-2 L | 0-4 L |
| Perugia U19 | 2-3 L | 1-3 L |
| Pescara U19 | 2-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Pisa U19 | 2-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Monopoli U19 | 2-4 L | 2-0 W |
| Crotone U19 | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 5 L | 2 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Spezia U19 (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ascoli U19
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05 | Empoli U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 02/05 | Perugia U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
– | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 24/04 | Pescara U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
0-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 18/04 | Catanzaro U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
1-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Avellino U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 02/04 | Pisa U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
1-3 | 2-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 21/03 | Monopoli U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
1-0 | 2-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 14/03 | Bari U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 07/03 | Palermo U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 28/02 | Crotone U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
Spezia U19
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05 | Pisa U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 02/05 | Ternana U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 25/04 | Benevento U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Empoli U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 11/04 | Perugia U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
1-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 04/04 | Pescara U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 21/03 | Crotone U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 14/03 | Monopoli U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 07/03 | Salernitana U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
1-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 28/02 | Cosenza U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
0-0 | 3-2 | 10 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ascoli U19 vs Spezia U19?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ascoli U19 win (45%). Probabilities: Ascoli U19 45%, draw 24%, Spezia U19 31%.
How many goals are expected in Ascoli U19 vs Spezia U19?
The model expects 3.42 goals (Ascoli U19 1.88 · Spezia U19 1.54), with a 57% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Ascoli U19 vs Spezia U19?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.