Football · Italy Campionato Primavera 2 · 05/09, 16:00

Prediction: Salernitana U19 vs Bari U19

Team pages: Salernitana U19

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

Salernitana U191.4

Bari U191.64

1X2

32% 26% 42%

Salernitana U19 Draw Bari U19

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Salernitana U19 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DLDLLLLDLW

Bari U19 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWLDDWWL

Head-to-head

Salernitana U19 1–2–3 Bari U19 (6 last)

Bari U193-2Salernitana U19
Salernitana U192-1Bari U19
Bari U191-0Salernitana U19
Salernitana U190-0Bari U19
Salernitana U192-2Bari U19
Bari U193-0Salernitana U19

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Salernitana U19 1433 · Bari U19 1509

	Salernitana U19	Draw	Bari U19
Our model	32%	26%	42%
Market	32%	26%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bari U19 (rating 1433 vs 1509).
H2H favours Bari U19: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Salernitana U19	Bari U19
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.3	1.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	44/22/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.9	2.9 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.3	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.50

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.88

2 (-0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Pinn 2.94 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.12

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:15 +1’	2.80	3.50	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:16	2.94	3.40	2.12

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Salernitana U19 1–2–3 Bari U19

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Bari U19	3-2	Salernitana U19
17/01/26 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Salernitana U19	2-1 HT 1-1	Bari U19
08/03/25 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Bari U19	1-0 HT 0-0	Salernitana U19
07/12/24 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Salernitana U19	0-0	Bari U19
02/03/24 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Salernitana U19	2-2 HT 0-2	Bari U19
23/12/23 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Bari U19	3-0 HT 3-0	Salernitana U19

Standings · Italy Campionato Primavera 2 · Primavera 2 26/27, Girone B

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Perugia U19	1	1	0	3	2	3
2	Ascoli U19	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Benevento U19	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Cosenza U19	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Frosinone U19	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Latina U19	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Palermo U19	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Pescara U19	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Spezia U19	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Monopoli U19	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Bari U19	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Napoli U19	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Avellino U19	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Catanzaro U19	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Salernitana U19	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Pisa U19	1	0	1	2	3	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Salernitana U19	Bari U19
Avellino U19	1-0 W	1-1 D
Cosenza U19	2-2 D	2-2 D
Benevento U19	0-3 L	1-2 L
Palermo U19	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Bari U19 (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Salernitana U19

DLDLLLLDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/05	Avellino U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
02/05	Bari U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	–	2-3	–	–	L
25/04	Cosenza U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-1	2-2	8	6	D
18/04	Perugia U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-0	1-3	4	0	L
11/04	Empoli U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-1	0-4	3	2	L
04/04	Benevento U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-0	0-3	6	4	L
21/03	Pescara U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
14/03	Ternana U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-1	2-2	4	5	D
07/03	Spezia U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-1	0-4	2	0	L
28/02	Palermo U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	–	1-1	–	–	D

Bari U19

LWLWLDDWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/05	Benevento U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-1	1-2	1	2	L
02/05	Salernitana U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	–	3-2	–	–	W
25/04	Crotone U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-0	4-0	6	1	W
18/04	Avellino U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
11/04	Cosenza U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-2	2-2	14	6	D
04/04	Catanzaro U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-0	1-3	10	5	L
21/03	Palermo U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-0	2-1	5	1	W
14/03	Ascoli U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-1	1-2	6	3	L
07/03	Monopoli U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-1	2-1	8	5	W
28/02	Pisa U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-2	1-2	6	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Salernitana U19 vs Bari U19?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Bari U19 win (42%). Probabilities: Salernitana U19 32%, draw 26%, Bari U19 42%.

How many goals are expected in Salernitana U19 vs Bari U19?

The model expects 3.04 goals (Salernitana U19 1.4 · Bari U19 1.64), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Salernitana U19 vs Bari U19?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.