Football · Italy Serie D · 18/10, 15:00

Prediction: San Donato Tavarnelle vs ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio

Team pages: San Donato Tavarnelle · ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

San Donato Tavarnelle1.35

ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio1.35

1X2

36% 28% 36%

San Donato Tavarnelle Draw ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

San Donato Tavarnelle 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWDWWDLLDL

ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWLWLWWD

Head-to-head

San Donato Tavarnelle 0–2–2 ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio (4 last)

San Donato Tavarnelle2-2ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio
ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio3-0San Donato Tavarnelle
ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio1-1San Donato Tavarnelle
San Donato Tavarnelle1-2ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · San Donato Tavarnelle 1502 · ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio 1513

	San Donato Tavarnelle	Draw	ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio
Our model	36%	28%	36%
Market	36%	28%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio: 2-2-0.
High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	San Donato Tavarnelle	ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.1	1.6 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/33/17%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 6	3.3 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.6	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.20

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:22 +28’	2.50	3.20	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · San Donato Tavarnelle 0–2–2 ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/02/26 Italy Serie D	San Donato Tavarnelle	2-2 HT 0-0	ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio
05/10/25 Italy Serie D	ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio	3-0	San Donato Tavarnelle
28/04/24 Italy Serie D	ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio	1-1	San Donato Tavarnelle
16/12/23 Italy Serie D	San Donato Tavarnelle	1-2	ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	7	5	1	1	16	2	16
2	Sambiase	7	5	1	1	11	5	16
3	Calcio Avola 1949	7	5	0	2	11	10	15
4	Vibonese	7	4	2	1	16	6	14
5	ASD Licata	7	4	2	1	10	9	14
6	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	7	3	3	1	13	5	12
7	Igea Virtus	7	3	2	2	16	14	11
8	Milazzo	7	3	1	3	6	9	10
9	Nissa FC	7	2	3	2	10	10	9
10	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	7	2	2	3	10	10	8
11	Siracusa	7	4	2	1	11	5	7
12	Modica	7	2	1	4	7	10	7
13	ASD CastrumFavara	7	2	1	4	8	9	7
14	Città di Gela	7	1	3	3	5	7	5
15	Vigor Lamezia	7	1	2	4	7	16	5
16	ASD Ragusa	7	0	3	4	5	10	3
17	Trapani	7	2	0	5	3	11	1
18	Enna Calcio	7	0	1	6	0	17	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	San Donato Tavarnelle	ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio
Gavorrano	0-2 L	2-1 W
ASD Terranuova Traiana	1-1 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

San Donato Tavarnelle

WWDWWDLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Prato Italy Serie D	0-1	0-2	8	1	L
04/10	Mezzolara Italy Serie D	0-1	1-1	8	4	D
27/09	Virtus Flaminia Italy Serie D	–	1-2	–	–	L
20/09	Gavorrano Italy Serie D	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
16/09	ASD Terranuova Traiana Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
13/09	ASD Sasso Marconi Italy Serie D	1-0	3-1	4	6	W
06/09	ASD Seravezza Calcio Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
03/05	ASD Seravezza Calcio Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
26/04	Grosseto Italy Serie D	–	2-0	–	–	W
19/04	Foligno Italy Serie D	0-0	1-0	7	5	W

ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio

DWWWLWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	ASD Grassina Italy Serie D	1-0	1-1	8	6	D
04/10	GSD Ghiviborgo VDS Italy Serie D	1-0	1-0	8	4	W
27/09	ASD Rondinella Marzocco Italy Serie D	1-1	3-2	6	5	W
20/09	Ternana Italy Serie D	0-0	0-3	4	2	L
16/09	Robur Siena Italy Serie D	–	3-2	–	–	W
12/09	Aquila 1902 Montevarchi Italy Serie D	1-2	1-4	6	1	L
06/09	SCD Progresso Calcio Italy Serie D	1-0	2-1	8	2	W
03/05	Gavorrano Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
26/04	ASD Terranuova Traiana Italy Serie D	–	3-2	–	–	W
19/04	Poggibonsi Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in San Donato Tavarnelle vs ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio?

According to our model, the most likely result is a San Donato Tavarnelle win (36%). Probabilities: San Donato Tavarnelle 36%, draw 28%, ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio 36%.

How many goals are expected in San Donato Tavarnelle vs ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio?

The model expects 2.7 goals (San Donato Tavarnelle 1.35 · ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio 1.35), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in San Donato Tavarnelle vs ASD Tau Calcio Altopascio?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.