Football · Italy Serie D · 25/10, 14:30

Prediction: Sestri Levante vs ACSD Saluzzo

Team pages: Sestri Levante · ACSD Saluzzo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.18Total

Sestri Levante1.16

ACSD Saluzzo1.02

1X2

38% 30% 31%

Sestri Levante Draw ACSD Saluzzo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Sestri Levante 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLLDLWDL

ACSD Saluzzo 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LDDWWDDLDL

Head-to-head

Sestri Levante 4–1–1 ACSD Saluzzo (6 last)

ACSD Saluzzo1-2Sestri Levante
Sestri Levante2-5ACSD Saluzzo
ACSD Saluzzo0-1Sestri Levante
Sestri Levante2-1ACSD Saluzzo
Sestri Levante2-0ACSD Saluzzo
ACSD Saluzzo1-1Sestri Levante

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sestri Levante 1481 · ACSD Saluzzo 1471

	Sestri Levante	Draw	ACSD Saluzzo
Our model	38%	32%	31%
Market	39%	29%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.18 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sestri Levante: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sestri Levante	ACSD Saluzzo
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.3	1.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.2	1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/17/83%	0/100/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.2	1 / 2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.10

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 18:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:29 +12’	2.30	3.10	2.80
12:47 +5’	2.15▼	3.10	3.00▲
18:16 +6’	2.30▲	3.10	2.80▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sestri Levante 4–1–1 ACSD Saluzzo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/01/26 Italy Serie D	ACSD Saluzzo	1-2	Sestri Levante
07/09/25 Italy Serie D	Sestri Levante	2-5	ACSD Saluzzo
12/02/22 Italy Serie D	ACSD Saluzzo	0-1	Sestri Levante
24/11/21 Italy Serie D	Sestri Levante	2-1 HT 1-0	ACSD Saluzzo
13/06/21 Italy Serie D	Sestri Levante	2-0 HT 1-0	ACSD Saluzzo
30/01/21 Italy Serie D	ACSD Saluzzo	1-1 HT 0-0	Sestri Levante

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	8	6	1	1	18	3	19
2	Sambiase	8	5	2	1	12	6	17
3	Calcio Avola 1949	8	5	1	2	12	11	16
4	Vibonese	8	4	3	1	17	7	15
5	Igea Virtus	8	4	2	2	19	15	14
6	ASD Licata	7	4	2	1	10	9	14
7	Milazzo	8	4	1	3	9	10	13
8	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	8	3	3	2	14	8	12
9	Nissa FC	8	2	3	3	11	12	9
10	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	7	2	2	3	10	10	8
11	Vigor Lamezia	8	2	2	4	10	16	8
12	Siracusa	7	4	2	1	11	5	7
13	Modica	7	2	1	4	7	10	7
14	ASD CastrumFavara	8	2	1	5	8	10	7
15	Città di Gela	8	1	4	3	6	8	6
16	Trapani	8	3	0	5	4	11	4
17	ASD Ragusa	8	0	3	5	6	13	3
18	Enna Calcio	8	0	1	7	0	20	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sestri Levante	ACSD Saluzzo
Sanremese	0-1 L	2-2 D
Celle Varazze FBC	1-1 D	3-1 W
Borgosesia	1-0 W	2-0 W
Biellesse	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: ACSD Saluzzo (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sestri Levante

LLWLLDLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Sanremese Italy Serie D	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
11/10	Celle Varazze FBC Italy Serie D	0-1	1-1	0	5	D
04/10	Borgosesia Italy Serie D	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
27/09	Biellesse Italy Serie D	1-2	1-2	2	3	L
20/09	GSD Lascaris Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
16/09	USD Fezzanese Italy Serie D	–	0-3	–	–	L
13/09	Alessandria Italy Serie D	1-2	1-2	3	1	L
06/09	Asti Italy Serie D	–	2-0	–	–	W
03/05	Sanremese Italy Serie D	–	0-2	–	–	L
26/04	Celle Varazze FBC Italy Serie D	0-1	0-1	8	3	L

ACSD Saluzzo

LDDWWDDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Chisola Italy Serie D	–	0-3	–	–	L
11/10	AC Bra Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
04/10	Ligorna Italy Serie D	1-1	1-2	2	1	L
27/09	Derthona Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
20/09	Sanremese Italy Serie D	–	2-2	–	–	D
16/09	Celle Varazze FBC Italy Serie D	–	3-1	–	–	W
12/09	Borgosesia Italy Serie D	–	2-0	–	–	W
06/09	Biellesse Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
03/05	Derthona Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
26/04	Citta di Varese Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sestri Levante vs ACSD Saluzzo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sestri Levante win (38%). Probabilities: Sestri Levante 38%, draw 30%, ACSD Saluzzo 31%.

How many goals are expected in Sestri Levante vs ACSD Saluzzo?

The model expects 2.18 goals (Sestri Levante 1.16 · ACSD Saluzzo 1.02), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sestri Levante vs ACSD Saluzzo?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.