Football · Spain Tercera Group 4 · 19/09, 18:15

Prediction: Cultural de Durango vs UD Aretxabaleta

Team pages: Cultural de Durango · UD Aretxabaleta

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

Cultural de Durango1.59

UD Aretxabaleta1.2

1X2

45% 28% 27%

Cultural de Durango Draw UD Aretxabaleta

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Cultural de Durango 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLLDWDLWDL

UD Aretxabaleta 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDLWLLLWWD

Head-to-head

Cultural de Durango 2–2–0 UD Aretxabaleta (4 last)

Cultural de Durango1-1UD Aretxabaleta
UD Aretxabaleta1-1Cultural de Durango
Cultural de Durango3-1UD Aretxabaleta
UD Aretxabaleta1-2Cultural de Durango

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cultural de Durango 1480 · UD Aretxabaleta 1512

	Cultural de Durango	Draw	UD Aretxabaleta
Our model	45%	27%	28%
Market	45%	28%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Cultural de Durango: 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cultural de Durango	UD Aretxabaleta
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.7	1.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	17/33/50%	0/75/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.2	2.3 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0	5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.20

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.01
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.23
2	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.34 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
14:01 +19’	2.00	3.20	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:28 +269’	2.04	3.14	3.37
00:32 +16’	2.01▼	3.23▲	3.34▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cultural de Durango 2–2–0 UD Aretxabaleta

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/26 Spain Tercera Group 4	Cultural de Durango	1-1	UD Aretxabaleta
14/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 4	UD Aretxabaleta	1-1 HT 0-0	Cultural de Durango
12/04/25 Spain Tercera Group 4	Cultural de Durango	3-1 HT 2-1	UD Aretxabaleta
01/12/24 Spain Tercera Group 4	UD Aretxabaleta	1-2 HT 0-2	Cultural de Durango

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 4

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SD Beasain	2	1	1	0	2	0	4
2	UD Aretxabaleta	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
3	CD Alaves C	2	1	1	0	4	1	4
4	Sodupe	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
5	Real Sociedad C	2	1	1	0	2	0	4
6	Aurrera de Vitoria	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
7	Real Union B	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
8	Santurtzi	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
9	SD Erandio	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
10	San Ignacio	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
11	CD Derio	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
12	Eibar C	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
12	Leioa	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
14	Cultural de Durango	2	0	1	1	4	5	1
15	CD Touring	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
16	Lagun Onak	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
16	Pasaia KE	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
18	Amurrio	2	0	0	2	1	5	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cultural de Durango	UD Aretxabaleta
Santurtzi	1-2 L	1-2 L
San Ignacio	3-3 D	1-0 W
Real Sociedad C	0-4 L	2-5 L
Pasaia KE	0-0 D	2-3 L
Lagun Onak	1-0 W	2-1 W
SD Deusto	1-1 D	0-3 L
Portugalete	0-1 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: UD Aretxabaleta (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cultural de Durango

LLLDWDLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Santurtzi Spain Tercera Group 4	0-2	1-2	3	4	L
05/09	San Ignacio Spain Tercera Group 4	–	3-3	–	–	D
09/05	Santurtzi Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	4-1	2	1	W
03/05	Real Sociedad C Spain Tercera Group 4	–	0-4	–	–	L
25/04	Pasaia KE Spain Tercera Group 4	–	0-0	–	–	D
16/04	Lagun Onak Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
11/04	SD Deusto Spain Tercera Group 4	1-0	1-1	5	8	D
01/04	Portugalete Spain Tercera Group 4	0-1	0-1	2	8	L
28/03	San Ignacio Spain Tercera Group 4	–	0-1	–	–	L
19/03	CD Derio Spain Tercera Group 4	0-1	0-4	4	3	L

UD Aretxabaleta

WDLWLLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	SD Beasain Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	0-0	0	7	D
05/09	CD Touring Spain Tercera Group 4	0-0	1-0	1	2	W
09/05	Zamudio Spain Tercera Group 4	–	3-1	–	–	W
03/05	Santurtzi Spain Tercera Group 4	–	1-2	–	–	L
26/04	Real Sociedad C Spain Tercera Group 4	–	2-5	–	–	L
15/04	Pasaia KE Spain Tercera Group 4	1-1	2-3	8	6	L
11/04	Lagun Onak Spain Tercera Group 4	–	2-1	–	–	W
02/04	SD Deusto Spain Tercera Group 4	0-2	0-3	9	5	L
29/03	Portugalete Spain Tercera Group 4	–	2-2	–	–	D
22/03	San Ignacio Spain Tercera Group 4	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cultural de Durango vs UD Aretxabaleta?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cultural de Durango win (45%). Probabilities: Cultural de Durango 45%, draw 28%, UD Aretxabaleta 27%.

How many goals are expected in Cultural de Durango vs UD Aretxabaleta?

The model expects 2.78 goals (Cultural de Durango 1.59 · UD Aretxabaleta 1.2), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Cultural de Durango vs UD Aretxabaleta?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.